IMD defers call on monsoon onset over Kerala
It has led to a cyclonic circulation over the southeastern Arabian Sea and its expected northward movement Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to defer a call on the prospects of the onset of the monsoon over Kerala a day after the original window of 4 June started (with a margin of plus or minus four days) for the event which opened on Monday.
West wind flag
The IMD said on Monday that the westerly wind column over the southern Arabian Sea on the monsoon highway to Kerala rose only 2.1 kilometers into the atmosphere, which is about a third of the required height.
The position of the cyclonic circulation is in a very unfavorable position, causing the clouds to concentrate very far off the coast of Kerala.
This circulation may deepen into the low-pressure area, further organizing monsoon flows around it, and may intensify as a depression by Friday over the southeast and adjacent east-central Arabian Sea, away from the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka.
Accompanying clouds may persist around the system, possibly ruling out their appearance on the coast at least until Friday.
They are watched closely
In view of “the formation and intensification of this system and its near-northern motion which may decisively influence the progression of the monsoon, IMD is monitoring the situation closely… and will issue daily updates,” said a statement from the Met Office on Monday.
It is also clear to look at the latest satellite images of how late the onset of the monsoon is over Kerala.
business line It was alluded to in a report a week ago HOW THE DICES ARE LOADING FOR Odds TO START IN TIME After IMD officially announces there will be a ‘slight delay’ this year
delayed all the way
Monsoons called in all the way at key stops including Myanmar, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Sri Lanka in an order of up to 10 days.
Weather watchers have expressed concerns that this delay may enter into the starting dynamics over Kerala, which now appears to be proving. An unexpected cyclonic spin/depression has added to the general uncertainty.
The prevailing winds at noon on Monday were weak northwesterly along the coast. They should be from west to southwest and fill the shaft up to the height required for the start.
This may not happen until June 9-10 (Friday/Saturday), according to IMD numerical model projections based on expected lateral movement of the depression. Most global models agree with this.