Updated global models signal mixed fortunes for monsoon 

day after The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced a slight delay in the onset of this year’s monsoon (June 4 vs. the usual June 1), the latest monsoon forecast for the period June-September by various agencies indicates unevenness in the case of the monsoon.

The South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) expects lower-than-normal monsoon rainfall in some areas in the northwest, central and north-eastern South Asia region, while higher-than-normal precipitation is likely over the north and northwest, as well as parts of the east and south. eastern.

SASCOF Seasonal Forecast

The forecast was released from SASCOF’s 25th session on May 5, which identified areas of lower-than-normal rainfall, including parts of northern India (52 percent probability) and central India (40 percent probability). Areas likely to be affected include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and northeastern India. Areas likely to receive above-normal precipitation include eastern India (50 percent probability) and southern India (60 percent probability).

the IMD He said In its first long-range monsoon forecast in April it says it expects a ‘normal’ monsoon For the fifth year on the trot. Monsoon precipitation is projected to be 96 percent (with a typical error of ± 5 percent) of the long-period average. Spatial rainfall prevalence will be determined by a looming El Niño and a positive projected phase in the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Global Model Outlook

Some global weather The models provide somewhat similar forecasts that range from a broader precipitation regime below normal, to normal or below normal. The APEC Climate Center in Busan, South Korea is the most pessimistic, indicating a semi-drift during June-August, except for the West Coast, Odisha-Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

The Applications Laboratory of the Japanese National Forecaster Jamstec does not participate in the forecasts of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center. It suspects that rainfall will be normal over much of the country during this period, with deficit areas over the eastern Himalayan foothills (West and northeastern states of Bengal) and northern inland Karnataka.

overflow along the west coast

The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts sees the possibility of heavy rains in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan (including Mumbai) and slightly less heavy rains over adjacent parts of southern Gujarat during June, July and August. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, central Madhya Pradesh and parts of Telangana and Rayalaseema are among the regions that will see less than normal rainfall.

While June is the first month of the season that witnesses the onset and development of monsoons from the southwest coast and above, July is the wettest month, and August is the second wettest month. In early September, the monsoon begins to withdraw from far western Rajasthan.