Pacific storm Mawar calls the shots, as monsoon stalls briefly again
The monsoon continued to flow over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in the direction of a tropical storm Mawar, a super typhoon until the past two days in the Pacific Northwest. An update from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that the cyclone had halted the monsoon run in the upstream bay for a brief period again.
The cyclonic circulation hung in the neighbourhood, over the northern Andaman Sea and neighboring southern Myanmar, and appeared poised for a monsoon influx after a strong grip from Mawar subsided over the following days. Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology had previously said that the circulation may condense as a low-pressure area, and grow strongly in the later stages.
Mawar effect on monsoon
On Wednesday, global models suggested it would be until at least June 2 before these outflows would break Mawar and allow some respite for the Gulf and Arabian Sea to host the monsoons. Not surprisingly, IMD said on Wednesday that it will take several days for the monsoon to make the next major rush forward over these seas.
IMD said the monsoon could advance to parts of the Maldives and the Comoros region. further southwest of the bay; remaining southeast of the Gulf; further on the central bay; and some parts of the northeastern Gulf over the next 2-3 days. Metta Myanmar said the monsoon was “strong to strong” over the Andaman Sea and South Gulf on Wednesday.
MJO wave timeline
The US Climate Prediction Center said the Madden-Julian Friendly Oscillation (MJO) – a global collection of low pressure, clouds and moisture that traverses the upper atmosphere and oversees the emergence of low pressure regions, storms and even the onset of the monsoon on land – may enter the Indian Ocean during the period of 14 to 20 June. But the monsoon may break over Kerala before it arrives.
Specifically, the reason why the CPC flagged the Arabian Sea and Gulf for the possibility of hosting a low pressure area/depression around this time, with some models suggesting cyclones form. What aims to lend credence to this is the expectation of an increase in clouds over the eastern and central Arabian Sea during the period from June 9 to 18, with a cloud mass moving away from the western coast towards Oman.
ECMWF forecasts through mid-June
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) has assessed the probability of total rainfall up to mid-June (10-15-day forecast), crossing the 5 mm threshold at 100 per cent along the coast of Kerala and Karnataka, where the monsoon first reaches 65 per cent. The Hundred is along the Goa Konkan Mumbai and the adjacent narrow gorge of western Maharashtra and parts of central western Tamil Nadu, bordering southern interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema. It is from 5 to 35 percent for the rest of the country.
The changeable weather has been triggered
Elsewhere on the mainland, a web of cyclonic flows and water basins prevailed Wednesday and promised bouts of constant volatility in weather ahead of the monsoons. Continuing westerly disturbance was stalled over northern Pakistan while cyclonic offset induced circulation was over Punjab. New Western unrest awaited its delivery in northeastern Afghanistan and its vicinity. Both cyclonic circulations have been floating near monsoon gates around Sri Lanka and eastern Bangladesh.