IMD upgrades storm alert in Bay to very severe cyclone by Friday morning
The depression intensified on Tuesday night over the southeastern Bay of Bengal into a deep depression, not far from declaring a hurricane, and was centered this morning (Wednesday) over the same area, about 540 kilometers west-southwest of the port. Blair. 1460 km S-SW of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh); and 1350 km south-south-west of Sittwe (Myanmar).
The deep depression is expected to move slowly and in shifts and start northwest for some time then turn north-northwest and gradually intensify into a hurricane (to be named Mocha) over Southeast Bay around Wednesday evening.
The slow pace will help intensify the system. It will gradually turn into a severe cyclone by Thursday (tomorrow) and into the morning and a very powerful cyclone by Friday morning over the southeast and adjacent central Bay of Bengal.
Strong flows help development
From here, it may begin to bend and move in the opposite direction (north-north-east) and begin to weaken as of Friday before the expected landfall over the coasts of southeastern Bangladesh and northern Myanmar between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) around the first hour of the day Sunday (May 14) with maximum sustained winds of 110-120kph, gust to 130kph.
On Wednesday, trans-equatorial flows pulled by the deep depression were boosted by two cyclonic cycles south of the equator.
These flows will continue to bring scattered rain with thunderstorms over the Maldives with occasional heavy showers. The onset of the southwest monsoon usually occurs over the archipelago by mid-May.
Timeline of the onset of the monsoon
While the severe cyclone may bring the monsoon to Myanmar at the usual time (early next week), it may delay its appearance over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the first port of call over India’s territorial waters.
The United States Climate Prediction Center reports below-normal precipitation for parts of Southeast Asia and much of the Indian Ocean through late May 30.
This could delay its appearance over Sri Lanka, with the dry patch extending as far south as Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
This will occur as the wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) becomes active far over the western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea, and the Philippines, with the potential for hurricanes to be born in that region at India’s expense.
The wet phase of MJO
A subsequent wet phase of the MJO is expected to enter the tropical Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea during the week of May 29 to June 7.
It may remain stationary over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal until June 17. This should help with the onset of the monsoon over India, a few days later than usual along the southwest coast of Kerala.