Day temperatures resume rising trend over North-West, Central India
Daytime temperatures are likely to rise by 3-5°C in most parts of the country over the next five days however Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) He does not see any heat wave conditions anywhere during this period.
Heating of northwest and central India will materialize even with an expected cyclone Mocha Barrels across the central parts of the Bay of Bengal and away from the coast of India. At least two global models see the typhoon likely building to highest strength Category 5 (quasi-super typhoon) as it races towards Myanmar.
On Sunday morning, a hurricane preparatory circulation was over the southeastern Gulf. However, IMD pushed the formation of a low pressure area in the same area for a day through Monday.
delayed build “low heat”
The differential heating of the land vis-à-vis the adjacent sea conditions the required temperature and pressure gradient for the monsoons to blow. The land is warming faster than the ocean and hosts a “low heat” over the subcontinent.
Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center said the dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will prevail over the southern peninsula from May 17 to 23. The onset of the monsoon may not occur unless the wet MJO phase has reached.
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Also read: A cyclonic spin developing in the southeastern Gulf may intensify into a storm after May 8
wet MJO phase
The wet phase of the MJO phase is a transient wave of low pressure, clouds and moisture that exits the East African coast and enters the Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal).
A wave can affect weather at ground level and create low pressure areas, or depressions. Thus it can also preside over the onset of monsoons in the regions it passes through.
Global models are witnessing a wet wave of moderate strength (MJO) drifting over the Arabian Sea after June 4th and remaining active for 10 days (until June 14th).
This is likely to cause the southwest monsoon to start over Kerala a few days later this time. IMD is expected to announce the expected start date next week in line with the usual mid-May schedule.