Rupee ends almost flat ahead of key US data sets; falls in July

The Indian rupee ended little changed on Monday, the first day of a data-heavy week that will help investors assess the outlook for US monetary policy.

The rupee ended at 82.2450 against the dollar on the day, compared with its close of 82.2475 on Friday.

For the month, the Indian unit declined 0.2 per cent.

The rupee has maintained a “well-defined” range since October last year, with the lower cap around 83 and the upper cap increasing to the 81.60 level, said Anindya Banerjee, head of research, forex and interest rates, at Kotak Securities.

If the rupee begins to drift above 82.20 on spot and maintains that trend, there could be a rise towards the next major support zone at the 82.00-82.02 levels, he said.

US ISM manufacturing and services data is due this week, alongside the private payrolls and non-farm payrolls readings.

The data comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left the door open for a rate hike at the September meeting, although analysts do not see the need for more Fed rate hikes this year.

Asian currencies were mostly mixed, while the dollar index was nearly flat at 101.66. Asian equities ended higher.

Throughout July, the rupee has been helped by foreign inflows into equities, which has totalled $5.5 billion, on a nest basis.

However, the Reserve Bank of India has been absorbing these flows from the spot market, keeping the rupee in a tight range, dealers said.

“Unless we see any large capital inflows, we are looking for a slightly weaker range for the rupee — between 82.00 and 82.50 — during this week,” said Jayram Krishnamurthy, co-founder and chief operating officer at Almus Risk Consulting.

USD/INR forward premiums fell on Monday but were flat month-on-month, with the 1-year implied yield at 1.67 per cent amid possible sell/buy swaps by the RBI and a dovish Fed outlook.