More rain for parts of North-West India even as IMD hints at monsoon depression over Bay in next 5 days
Even with the threat of heavy to very heavy rains on the disaster-affected hills of northwest India, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Alluded to the formation of a low-pressure area over the monsoon-favorable site in the northwest Bay of Bengal next 4-5 days (around next Wednesday), and the strengthening of the monsoons from east India onwards.
May grow like depression
business line king He hinted at this possibility in a report about a week ago. IMD suspects that the ‘depression’ may intensify into a depression and remain stalled over Northwest Bay for at least two days, causing rain to spread and intensify. The rain-driven monsoon over the plains of northwest and central India may therefore remain active and south normally during most days of the week from 20 to 26 July.
Also read: Delhi records highest single-day rainfall for the month of July since 1982: IMD
Rainy forecast for the weekend
In a short-term forecast on Friday, IMD said precipitation is fairly widespread with heavy to very heavy rain currently falling over Uttar Pradesh for the next two days and heavy rains thereafter. Isolated heavy rains are also likely on the floods and landslides that hit Himachal Pradesh over the next five days; over northern Haryana for the next three days; and eastern Rajasthan from Friday to Wednesday. Very heavy to very heavy rains are possible over Uttarakhand in the next 5 days.
confluence of factors
This has been attributed to the continued convergence of atmospheric systems, including the western end of the monsoon basin which lies south of its natural location. Its eastern end is further north, but may turn into North Bay from Monday, igniting the “low” two days later. Elsewhere, a cyclonic circulation is already present over the Midwest and southwest side of the Gulf, while another is hanging over southern Uttar Pradesh. Although the marine trough lies a cut-off from southern Maharashtra to the coasts of Kerala.
outbreak in eastern India
The presence of the eastern end of the monsoon basin may continue to cause fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy precipitation over Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Bihar for another three days. The onset of the ‘low’ may bring isolated torrential rains to Odisha over the next five days and later intensify. A similar view applies to Nagaland and Manipur for four days and the plains of West Bengal on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated rains are likely to be very heavy to very heavy over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim and Meghalaya until today (Friday) before reducing in intensity.
Also read: After a 10% deficit in June, IMD expects normal precipitation in July
Monsoon intensification
The ‘low’ may help intensify the monsoon on the west coast and western India, apart from bringing a much needed wave over rain-deficient central India over the next week. The marine basin may become offshore from the coasts of Gujarat to Kerala during many days of the week. Strong westerly to southwesterly winds are likely along the west coast. Light to moderate widespread to widespread rain may hit parts of southern peninsular India except for Tamil Nadu. This may help lift the heavy rain regime over the extreme northern parts of the country, northeastern India, West Bengal and Sikkim.
Above normal rain was seen
Overall, during the week of July 20-26, normal to above normal rain is expected in central India, Gujarat, and western parts of the country covering mainly along the western coasts and the adjacent southern peninsula. It is likely to be normal in the remaining parts of the country, outside parts of the landslide-hit hills in northwest India, western Himalayas Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, northeastern states, West Bengal and Sikkim, where it is likely to be normal to less than normal.