Weekly Rupee View: Range expected to stay valid

The rupee (INR) ended flat on Tuesday at 81.9163 against the dollar (dollar). In line with our expectations, it is still within the key levels at 81.60 and 82.15. While there was some downward pressure in the first half of last week which caused the INR to slip briefly below the support at 82.15, it managed to recover to the current level at 81.9163 despite negative foreign inflows.

According to NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) data, the net inflow of FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) amounted to $287 million over the past week. However, for the current month, flows were positive at $825 million.

editorial.Renving rupee

As it stands, the risks appear to be evenly balanced, and thus, the rupee is likely to remain within the aforementioned range.


The rupee looks directionless in the near term as it is between two important levels. Unless the local currency moves outside the range of 81.60-82.15, we cannot confirm the next part of the trend. A break of 81.60 could take the local unit quickly up to 81.10. On the other hand, if the INR declines from here and falls below the support at 82.15, we may see a drop to 82.50.

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The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently range bound, oscillating between 100.80 and 102.20. However, the general trend is bearish for DXY. If the bears regain their strength and pull it below 100.80, it could drop quickly to 99.25. But if there is a recovery that leads to a breach of the barrier at 102.20, the dollar index could rise to 103.50.


As it stands, the probability of the rupee moving on both sides is the same. However, the range between 81.60 and 82.15 remains intact. We expect this to remain relevant next week as well. Therefore, do not expect a sharp move in the USDINR pair this week.