Weak El Nino observed, may persist till Feb 2024, says US weather agency

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El Niño cases were first observed in seven years. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that tropical anomalies in the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean are consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

For the past four weeks, above-average sea surface temperatures have persisted over the eastern and eastern central Pacific Ocean. “Sea surface temperatures near Ecuador and Peru remain well above average,” the Chinese Communist Party said in its monthly update on Thursday.

The observations are in line with predictions from the Indian Meteorological Department that El Nino, which causes drought and lack of rainfall in Asia, will occur this month.

“peak in winter”

It added that El Nino, which has been responsible for 10 of the 15 droughts India has faced over the past 75 years, is likely to persist through the northern hemisphere winter (December 2023-February 2024) with a probability of 90 percent.

Almost all models indicate that El Niño will continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Strong El Nino (ONI values ​​at or greater than 1.5°C) are indicated by the dynamic model average through December 2023-February 2024, CPC said.

Forecasters also favor continued El Niño growth through the fall, which peaks this winter at moderate to strong intensity. However, the US climate agency said the chances of a “historically strong” El Nino that would rival the winters of 1997-1998 and 2015-16 are only one in five.

Sea surface temperatures exceed thresholds

An update from the World Meteorological Organization, which combines forecasts with expert guidance from around the world, predicted a 90 percent chance that the El Niño event would continue through the second half of 2023.

Earlier this month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean exceed El Niño thresholds. “Models indicate a high probability of further warming, with sea surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds until at least the beginning of the Southern Hemisphere summer,” the report said.

However, the Southern Oscillating Index (SOI) values ​​are just shy of El Nino levels. “Continued changes in large-scale wind, cloud and pressure patterns towards El Niño-like patterns have not been observed. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet fully converged, as they do during El Niño events,” the Australian Meteorological Agency said.

On the other hand, he said, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. “All models indicate that positive IOD is more likely to develop in the coming months,” she said. The Australian agency warned that if a positive IOD coincides with an El Niño, it could exacerbate the impact of El Niño on drought.