USDA sees world coffee output rise a tad at 174.9 million bags of 60 kg each
Rebound in production in Vietnam and Indonesia to see world coffee output rise in 2024-25. However, with rising consumption, the ending stocks for the year are set to drop further, according to the USDA’s biannual report on the world market and trade.
The world coffee output for 2024-25 is forecast at 174.9 million bags of 60 kg each, up 6.9 million bags higher than previous year’s 168 million bags. This increase is primarily on account of rebounding output in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Harvest in top producer Brazil is forecast at 66.4 million bags, up 100,000 bags from the previous year. Brazilian Arabica output is forecast to be 500,000 bags higher at 45.4 million, while the Robusta harvest is expected to slip 400,000 bags to 21 million. “Drought and high temperatures during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. With nearly flat output, coffee bean exports are forecast to drop 2.6 million bags to 40.5 million due primarily to last year’s inventory drawdown, which lowered total supplies,” the USDA said.
In Vietnam, the second-largest producer, output is forecast to recover 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million but remain below the 2021-22 record crop. Bean exports are forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million on higher available supplies.
Brazil and Vietnam are the top two coffee producing nations and supply issues last year had led to spiralling of prices globally which are hovering around 50 year highs.
In India, the seventh largest producer, 2024-25 coffee output is seen slightly higher at 6.2 million bags over previous years 6.06 million bags. Production of arabicas is seen tad lower at 1.4 million bags down from 1.48 million bags, while robusta output is seen slightly higher at 4.8 million bags up from previous year’s 4.58 million bags.
USDA said the world exports are forecast modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset reduced shipments from Brazil. Global consumption is expected to rise 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the US, and China. EU imports are forecast up 1.0 million bags to 45.0 million due to higher shipments from Vietnam and Indonesia. Global ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million.
USDA sees India’s bean exports during 2024-25 at 4.4 bags of 60 kgs each, almost flat when compared to the previous year’s 4.36 million bags. Exports of soluble coffees from India may see a decline at 2.13 million bags when compared to previous year’s 2.53 million bags. Total Indian coffee exports may see a dip at 6.54 million bags when compared to the previous year’s 6.9 million bags. The USDA has projected a marginal uptake in domestic consumption in India at 1.02 bags.