USDA Post forecasts 2% rise in India’s 2023-24 coffee exports on strong demand

India’s coffee exports for the 2023-24 marketing year starting in October are set to rise by 2 percent to 6.3 million bags of 60 kg each (about 3.8 thousand tons) on strong export prospects, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) office said. local in the country.

USDA India Post in its latest forecast expects Indian coffee export demand to remain strong throughout 2023-24. But trade sources do Indicates that current prices are limited She said that international buyers can place large orders.

“Strong demand for Indian Robusta, particularly Robusta cherries, is seen as driving the projected growth,” said Ramesh Raja, Chairman, Coffee Exporters Association. “We’re seeing good demand for the lower-priced Robusta, while we’re not seeing a significant increase in shipments of Arabica.”

The effect of weak economic conditions is seen to increase the demand for low price Robustas.

Shipping stats

In the current year 2022-23, the USDA sees Indian coffee exports amounting to 6.225 million bags of 60 kg each. So far, shipments are below the levels of the previous year.

For the October-May 15 period of the current 2022-23 season, shipments amounted to more than 2.38 thousand tons, about 10 percent less than the same period last year of 2.65 thousand tons, according to Coffee Council data.

Prices of Indian coffee from the farm are trading at rates of up to a decade, the newspaper said, driven by a global rise in international prices due to supply issues.

Green bean prices for Arabica and Cherry Robusta have increased by 9 and 24 percent, respectively, since the start of the Indian marketing year in October 2022. Both varieties are trading well above ICO index prices.

The USDA Post forecasts production for the 2023-24 marketing year at 5.8 million bags of 60 kg each, 73,800 tons of Arabica and 2.74 thousand tons of Robusta. The 2023-2024 forecast is seen as lower than the current year estimate of 6.25 million bags.

Monsoon effect

“The lack of pre-monsoon rains (March-May) is expected to negatively affect yields as fruit development declines significantly, especially for the Arabica variety in the main growing regions,” said the USDA.

Farm gate prices have increased since the beginning of this marketing year due to the expectation of lower than expected supplies.

Domestic consumption in India is expected to decline slightly to 1.285 million bags of 60 kg each due to higher input costs including raw coffee beans.

The Post further said that carry-over stocks will remain limited due to higher export volumes, the USDA said.