Three of four criteria for El Niño event have been met, says Australian Weather Agency

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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said three of the four criteria for El Niño development met increased chances of warm weather this year.

In its latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook, the bureau said a clear warming trend has been observed for NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions in the Pacific over the past three to six months.

This development comes on the heels of market analysts saying that the El Niño phenomenon is the main risk in the market in the near term. El Niño can affect the Indian monsoon and lead to a lack of rainfall, which results in the impact on the rural economy that keeps the wheel of development in the country moving.

India’s Sensex stock index, which rose to near-record levels last week, fell by at least 150 points mid-Tuesday.

atmospheric response

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an arm of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said El Niño conditions, abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that lead to drought and lack of precipitation in Asia – especially India, developed by mid-June.

This weekend, it said previously neutral El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equator Pacific had shifted to warm, El Niño-like conditions.

“The atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has begun over the past month,” the EPC said.

She said that the main oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon and indicate the beginning of the warm phase of the El Niño phenomenon.

When the criteria have been met in the past

The Australian Weather Bureau said trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific over any of the past three months, while the two-month Southern Oscillation Average has been 0.7 or less.

The majority of surveyed climate models show a sustained rise to at least 0.8 °C above the mean in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific by late winter or spring.

“When El Niño alert criteria were met in the past, El Niño developed about 70 percent of the time,” the office said.

The CPC said El Niño was predicted during the boreal summer (June-August), and persists into the fall and winter in nearly all models in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, ENSO projections.

Model indicators

She said there is an 80 percent chance of an El Niño by the end of August. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean had risen to El Niño thresholds. Models indicate a high probability of further warming.

CPC said, “Persistence of El Niño conditions is projected to be very likely through the remainder of 2023, and early 2024, with the chances of a return to neutral ENSO conditions increasing to about 36 percent by the end of the forecast period from February to April 2024.”

El Niño tends to develop during the months of April and June and tends to reach its peak during the months of October and February. A weather event usually lasts for 9-12 months, although sometimes it lasts for up to two years. El Niño usually recurs every 2-7 years.

Less monsoons

Although El Niño was predicted this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (MD) said the southwest monsoon, key to agricultural production, would be normal.

The southwest monsoon, which accounts for 76 percent of the country’s total annual rainfall, began a week late this year. Data from IMD shows that the current monsoon rainfall is minus 33 per cent as of June 19.