Sustained changes towards El Nino event not observed: Australian Met Bureau

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althoug Three of the four El Nino criteria The weather phenomenon that will arise has been encountered, and the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere are not fully coupled, as it happens during it El Nino events, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said.

But sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (SSTs) exceed the El Niño threshold. “Models indicate that further warming is likely, with sea surface temperatures remaining above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the year,” the bureau said in a new update on Tuesday.

El Nino effect

The El Niño Southern Oscillation Outlook (ENSO) continues to alert El Niño. “When El Niño alert criteria were met in the past, El Niño occurred about 70 percent of the time,” she said.

El Nino is caused by rising sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and leads to drought and lack of precipitation in Asia, especially India.

Also read: 90% chance of an El Nino developing over the next few months, says the US Climate Agency

“The past month saw the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shift back to neutral levels, with the 30-day SOI at +3.9 for the 30-day period ending July 16th,” Baum said.

Continuing changes in large-scale wind, cloud and pressure patterns toward El Niño-like patterns have not yet been observed, the office said, which explains why the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not fully connected.

“watch” to “alert”

On 6 July, the Australian Meteorological Agency upgraded its El Nino watch, which means there is a 50 percent chance that a weather event will occur, to an El Niño alert, which is a 70 percent chance of it occurring.

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. “All models indicate that positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring,” BoM said.

Also read: editorial. The evolution of El Niño requires caution

A positive IOD usually reduces precipitation and worsens El Niño.

Earlier this month, Met Office chief climatologist Katherine Ganter said climate models and indicators “now meet the bureau’s El Niño alert criteria.”

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“While the models show that tropical Pacific temperatures are very likely to reach El Niño levels during the winter, we have seen some movement in the atmosphere toward El Niño conditions,” Ganter said.

She said that although the criteria for an alert were met, the changes would need to be strengthened and sustained over a long period to be considered an El Niño event.

Even if El Niño does develop, Ganter said, its impact could vary by region as well as from one event to another.

El Niño usually occurs once every five years. This year’s El Niño event was predicted after a seven-year gap after three continuous years of La Niña, resulting in excessive rainfall in Asia and resulting in a drought phase in South America, during 2021-23.

the US Climate Prediction Center forecast El Nino could last at least until April 2024.