Seed shortage may hit India’s cotton output next season

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India is staring at a severe scarcity of cotton seeds next season as, according to industry estimates, there has been a 30-40 per cent drop in production this year. There is not much surplus to offset the loss. Preventive policy action can help avert reduced acreage next year, experts said.

During kharif 2023, actual sales were 4.4 crore packets (of 450 gram each) against availability of about 4.8 crore packets, said Ram Kaundinya, adviser at the Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII). The industry had expected demand to grow to 4.8 crore packets from 4.2 crore packets in kharif 2022.

“The seeds production is estimated to have declined by 30-40 per cent due to the long dry spell during the monsoon season. In many places even germination was an issue. For seed quality, the cotton crop has to be good in every aspect,” Kaundinya said.

The acreage was reported at 116.79 lakh hectare (lh) under Bt cotton and 6.64 lh under non-bt varieties in 2023.

“On an average three packets of seeds are required for two acres and, to match last year’s acreage of 117 lh (or 289 lakh acres), there is need for nearly 4.3 crore packets of Bt cotton. This is impossible to meet,” said an industry expert.

Lower output

Nearly 65 per cent of the cotton crop in Haryana and Punjab and 80-90 per cent in Rajasthan was damaged due to deficient rain and pink bollworm pest. The Agriculture Ministry has estimated this year’s cotton production to be lower by 6 per cent at 31.66 million bales (of 170 kg each) from 33.66 million bales in 2022.

However, the Cotton Association of India has pegged the output even lower at 29.41 million bales and exports at 1.4 million bales. Due to bumper production India had exported 7.8 million bales of cotton in 2020-21.

Some experts said exports should be curbed to make the fibre available for domestic industry, with demand pegged higher than production at over 31 million bales.

Currently, kapas (unprocessed cotton) is fetching about ₹6,824 per quintal at the agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in Gujarat against the minimum support price of ₹6,620 per quintal. In October-November, the average mandi price of kapas in Gujarat was ₹7,019 per quintal.