Rupee settles higher as focus turns to Powell’s remarks

The Indian rupee closed stronger on Friday, tracking gains in most Asian currencies, as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, expected to shape market expectations for rate cuts in the world’s largest economy.

The rupee closed at 83.89 against the US dollar, higher than its close at 83.9525 in the previous session. The currency strengthened marginally week-on-week.

Most Asian currencies were higher by 0.1 per cent to 0.7 per cent, while the dollar index held steady at 101.4.

With an interest rate cut already priced in for the Fed’s September meeting, Powell’s remarks will help investors determine whether the central bank will reduce rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

He is expected to “indicate more confidence that the Fed will begin lowering rates from the next policy meeting in September, although a larger 50 basis points cut will likely require further evidence of labour market deterioration,” MUFG Bank said in a note.

The odds of a 50 bps rate cut are currently at about 24 per cent, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Dovish remarks from Powell should help the rupee “slightly,” but are expected to have more of an impact on dollar-rupee forward premiums, a trader at a foreign bank said.

The 1-year implied yield should “move towards 2.15 per cent,” if odds of a 50 bps cut rise after the remarks, the trader added. The 1-year implied yield was at 2.09 per cent on Friday.

Despite positive global cues, strong dollar demand from local importers and outflows from local equities have kept a lid on the rupee’s gains over recent sessions.

Overseas investors have withdrawn about $2.1 billion from Indian stocks over August so far, according to stock depository data.