Rupee little changed tracking mostly subdued Asian peers

The Indian rupee was barely changed on Thursday, tracking rangebound moves in most of its Asian peers as focus turns to key US economic data which could impact expectations of potential easing in policy rates by the Federal Reserve.

The rupee was at 83.1125 against the US dollar as of 9:30 a.m., barely changed from its close at 83.1225 in the previous session.

The dollar index was largely steady near 103.3 and most Asian currencies were rangebound, save for the Indonesian rupiah which was down 0.4 per cent.

The 10-year US Treasury yield was slightly lower in Asia but had ticked up to 4.18 per cent on Thursday, following data that signalled US business activity had picked up in January.

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The rupee is likely to “continue moving in its narrow 10-paisa intra-day range,” with potential downside likely capped near 83.20, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said.

“There could be marginal speculative build-up heading into US data releases but overall interest is muted given the mostly stable price action,” the trader added.

The rupee has hovered in a tight band between 83.0575 and 83.18 over the past five trading sessions.

US GDP data for the October-December quarter is due later in the day, followed by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data on Friday.

Indian markets are shut on Friday on account of a local holiday.

Economists polled by Reuters expect a GDP growth print of 2 per cent, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

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The broad outlook on the rupee “suggests a delicate balance, with positive factors outweighing the negative ones,” Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex said.

The rupee may stand to witness some appreciation after “consolidating for some more days” in its prevailing range.