Rupee ends marginally higher but falls for fourth straight week

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The Indian rupee ended stronger on Friday, aided by the softness in US treasury yields and some easing in the dollar after concerns about US interest rates staying higher for longer. This pushed the local unit to a record low earlier in the week.

The rupee closed at 83.1025 against the US dollar, up 0.05 per cent on the day. On the week, however, the currency declined 0.31 per cent.

On Thursday, the unit slipped to 83.16, hovering near a record 83.29 low hit in October.

Equity outflows and crude prices have kept the rupee from strengthening further, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said. At this point, the movement in the rupee is “not about INR weakness but dollar strength,” the trader added.

The dollar index gained on Friday as the greenback seemed on track for a fifth consecutive week of gains led by the demand for safer assets as US treasury yields likely stayed elevated amid lingering concerns about the Chinese economy.

“In the near term, we could see further upward pressure on the USD/INR, as dollar remains supported by rising UST yields. Possible announcement of stronger China stimulus could add upward pressure on crude oil prices,” IDFC Bank said in a note.

India’s equity markets were also under pressure on Friday, with the benchmark equity index BSE Sensex down 0.31 per cent. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.22 per cent after hitting a 10-month high of 4.32 per cent on Thursday.

The rupee should remain rangebound between 82.75 and 83.25 heading into next week, said Mandar Pitale, head of treasury at SBM Bank India. “But oversized regulatory intervention could push the rupee to strengthen beyond that.”