Rain deficit down 10% in five days as first monsoon ‘low’ gets down to work
The country’s rainfall deficit fell to 23 percent on Monday, a 10 percent improvement over the weekend even as regions with large individual deficits (over 60 percent) narrowed to Konkan Mumbai, Kerala, Madhya Maharashtra, Maratwada, Vidarbha, Jharkhand and Bihar. and the plains of West Bengal. Most of northwestern India falls into the above normal/excess rain category.
He has faith
This follows a giant leap of faith Monsoon winds cover most of the land areaearly at least in parts of northwest India.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said this materializes during preparation for the formation of the low pressure area, the first of the season, which lies over northern inland Odisha and borders southern Jharkhand and northern Chhattisgarh by Monday evening.
The “low” is expected to travel through moisture-stressed areas in the east and bordering central-east India over the next couple of days. IMD said it will move west-north-west towards northern Madhya Pradesh over the next two days.
A supportive east-west basin extends from northwest Rajasthan to northwest Bay of Bengal. Apart from this, a marine basin extends along the western coast from the coast of South Gujarat to the coast of Kerala. These are all signs of active monsoon conditions for the country.
moisture in the Arabian Sea
The “low” will increasingly attract moisture from the Arabian Sea, causing lower precipitation along parts of the west coast and neighboring peninsular India as well.
However, its trajectory needs to be watched since any movement towards the Himalayan foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is fraught with the risk of causing a ‘break monsoon’ when the rains are confined to the adjoining hillsides and plains and parts of north-eastern India and along the east coast ( including Tamil Nadu).
Also read: El Niño: Three out of four criteria are met, says the Australian Meteorological Agency
“low” path
This may exacerbate the lack of rain in the rest of the country. But if the ‘low’ sticks to a monsoon favorable west-northwest path in the core monsoon region of central and northwest India, it will ensure fuller monsoon conditions for the region and lead to precipitation of the ‘low’ to Rajasthan and beyond (across the border into Pakistan).
Monsoon advances
What is now left to be covered by the monsoons are only parts of Gujarat, western Rajasthan and parts of Punjab and Haryana. The normal schedule to cover the entire landmass is July 8.
On Monday, it entered some other parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and the whole of Ladakh. Its northern border passed through Porbandar, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Narnool and Firozpur.
Conditions are favorable for a spectacular recent run around some other parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and the remaining parts of Haryana and Punjab over the next two days, well ahead of schedule.