Rabi conference holds key to raise wheat output

The Rabi conference, scheduled on September 24, will be crucial as the Centre will hold discussion with States to formulate strategies for raising output of all winter-grown crops, including wheat. This is amid the continuation of the export ban on wheat and wheat-based products such as atta (flour) and maida even after two years. The curb is unlikely to be lifted in the near future. India was a net exporter of wheat until the ban was imposed in 2022.

“The government’s recent order on stock holding limit, squeezing further, points to the fact that something is wrong with wheat availability in the country. When there is record production and not a single grain is allowed to move outside the country, the wheat availability should have been normal, whereas it is not. The millers have been demanding resumption of open market sales from government’s stock and abolition of import duty,” said an industry expert.

The government has set a target of 164 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains output, including 115 mt of wheat for the rabi season 2024-25. In rabi 2023-34, the production was 157.84 mt of foodgrains, including 112.93 mt of wheat.

Wheat output saturated?

The country has just been able to manage the supply situation in 2024 as there was a bumper yield in Haryana, Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh, the expert said, adding that there is an urgent need to assess if wheat production has reached a saturation level. Such study should be done through a non-governmental professional agency, he said.

The Centre had allocated 0.74 mt of wheat to five southern states – Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh under the Public Distribution System in 2014-15, which increased to 1.25 mt in 2021-22, whereas the number of beneficiaries are same. It shows that there is a change in the consumption pattern which the government allocation has captured, but yet to be reflected in production policy, the expert said.

According to the target fixed for wheat, maximum 36.5 mt has been fixed for Uttar Pradesh, followed by 23 mt from Madhya Pradesh, 16.6 mt from Punjab, 11.5 mt from Haryana, 11 mt from Rajasthan and 6.5 mt from Bihar. Gujarat has set a target to ensure 4 mt of wheat production and Maharashtra 2 mt.

Other targets

In 2023-24, the estimated production of wheat was 35.43 mt in Uttar Pradesh, 21.28 mt in Madhya Pradesh, 17.78 mt in Punjab, 11.22 mt in Haryana, 10.79 mt in Rajasthan, 7.16 mt in Bihar, 3.7 mt in Gujarat and 1.94 mt in Maharashtra, according to official data.

Among other Rabi crops, the target for chana (gram) has been set at 13.65 mt for 2024-25 against its actual production of 11.58 mt in 2023-24, that of mustard at 13.8 mt against production of 13.16 mt, that of masur (lentil) at 1.65 mt against 1.75 mt and target of 2.25 mt of barley against actual output of 1.65 mt.