Powerful cyclone Mocha likely to hit Myanmar as western disturbance guides its path
The area of low pressure forming over the Bay of Southeast Bengal tomorrow is seen buoyant against the backdrop of strong southwesterly flows generated by a twin system developing south of the equator off the western coast of Indonesia, with clockwise movement of air and moisture around it. In contrast, the Gulf system has winds that move counterclockwise as in the region above the equator (Northern Hemisphere). It is perfectly aligned in a giant ‘S’ format to receive flows just below the equator (southern hemisphere) blowing from a typical southwesterly direction.
Are you looking forward to Myanmar on land?
Numerical weather forecasts by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predict a strong cyclone developing from a ‘depression’ away from the east coast of India into southern Myanmar by May 13. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Global Forecast System from the Climate Prediction Center in the United States see it blowing up the western coast of Myanmar. The “low” will intensify into a depression that will turn into a hurricane Mocha over Central Bay. Until then, she would travel in an approximate northern course. Subsequently, it will come under the influence of a westerly disturbance moving perpendicular to it from northwest India, descending from the Gangetic plains into the Gulf to scoop up the cyclone and drag it to the east.
Directing Western disturbances
In this way, the cyclone will be forced to look away from the eastern coast of India toward the coast of Myanmar, according to the numerical model predictions of the IMD and other leading global models. The disease-causing western disturbance was halted over Afghanistan on Saturday morning, and it will resume its journey toward northwestern and eastern India. This distant movement of the cyclone will cause the monsoon cyclone causing dry weather at lower levels to move in from across the Arabian Sea and begin to warm the land over central and northwest India. The region is already experiencing a ‘thermal deficit’ with potentially negative implications for the imminent onset and progression of the southwest monsoon, which is already under an El Niño shadow.
The third dry week of May
The US Climate Prediction Center has already predicted that a system of pent-up rain (drought) may blanket the coastal and bordering regions of southern Karnataka, Kerala, and neighboring southeastern Tamil Nadu, which collectively act as a gateway to the monsoon, during May 17. -23. The start of the monsoon over Sri Lanka, the penultimate stop, may be delayed accordingly. On mainland and neighboring India, the monsoon begins its earliest in the Maldives (mid-May), followed by Myanmar, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Sri Lanka, before reaching Kerala on the southwest coast. The Maldives has already reported scattered rain with heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms on Saturday, with wind gusts of 27-47km/h with winds of 83km/h thanks to southwesterly flows generated by construction activity in the Gulf.
Myanmar’s natural emergence?
Sri Lanka also reported similar climates, with forecasts indicating the possibility of several bouts of rain and thunderstorms over many parts of the island on Saturday afternoon and night and strong winds of up to 40-50 km/h on coasts along the coast. west and south. Meanwhile, Myanmar expects this year’s monsoon to be weak to moderate. Southern parts may get rain from May 13-18 around normal schedule, hurricane helped to very small degree Mocha; over delta regions from May 19-24; and central Myanmar from May 25 to 31. Two low-pressure areas are expected to form over the Gulf, with one of them intensifying to become a depression (corresponding to the evolution of Mocha).
Dry spell to follow
Even assuming a cyclone brings a monsoon over Myanmar around natural history, a dry spell may sweep over the country on its trail, while the Andaman and Nicobar Islands may have to wait for the build-up of favorable winds, clouds, and moisture for rain to arrive. The Sri Lanka Meteorological Department expects the Gulf Cyclone to bring rain during the latter part of May. Significantly, the Sri Lankan national forecaster is looking to the Gulf to cast another system (low or low pressure area) in early June, boosting southwest monsoon flows across the island nation and bordering southern peninsula in India. Myanmar has also called for the establishment of a second low pressure area in the Gulf during this period.