Nifty, Sensex to open flat-to-positive bias

Despite positive global cues, domestic markets will likely open flat on Friday. Holiday mood to keep activity low said analysts.

Gift Nifty at 19640 signals a positive opening, as Nifty October futures closed at 19,524.

INDIAVIX, known as the fear indicator, rose 6.30 per cent during the September month series, increasing from 12.06 to 12.82 levels, giving major discomfort to the bulls.

According to Alternative & Quantitative Research, the September series unfolded like a captivating drama, offering twists and turns that kept participants on the edge of their seats. “In the first half, the Nifty Index soared to new record highs, creating a sense of euphoria. However, the script flipped dramatically as, after reaching a peak of 20,222 on September 15, the index took a 700-point nosedive in the second half. Despite this rollercoaster ride, the Nifty Index concluded the September derivative series with a 300-point/1.4% gain. This marked the fifth positive F&O expiry in the last six series, showcasing the market’s resilience,” it added.

According to Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: the Foreign Portfolio Investors’ (FPIs) Long Short ratio rose from 50.50 per cent on August 31 to 66.38 per cent on September 13 before falling to 30.53 per cent on the last day of September expiry, indicating that FPIs now hold more short positions relative to long positions in Index Futures. T”he Put-Call Ratio, a sentiment indicator, too, moved up from 0.70 on August 31 to 1.54 on September 12 before strong call writing at higher levels took the ratio down to 0.70 on September 28.”

On the Options front in the October monthly expiry, the 19,500 Strike put option has the highest open interest with 52,02,000 contracts, followed by the 19,000 Strike put option with 34,46,150 contracts. While on the call side, the 20,000 call has the highest open interest with 23,14,100 contracts, followed by the 20,500 Call strike with 20,27,100 contracts, he added.

In this thrilling series, the benchmark Nifty Index notched up a 1.4% growth, settling at 19,524, and Nifty Bank was up 70 bps, settling at 44,301. Amidst this upward journey, the Midcap Index and Small-cap Index stole the spotlight, outshining the benchmark with gains of 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively, according to a Nuvama study.

Amid concerns over the likelihood of interest rates remaining higher for a longer, broader markets such as Nifty Midcap100/Nifty Smallcap100 too cracked. The volatility index – India VIX spiked sharply to 13 levels, last seen in May 2023 before settling at 12.8. “All the sectors entered in red with IT and FMCG being the biggest losers to the tune of almost 2%. Going ahead, the weakness in the market is likely to extend till the worry over the elevated oil prices and higher interest rates remains, posing a risk to the earnings growth trajectory,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd