National cotton brokers peg crop at 329.72 lakh bales

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The National Cotton Brokers Association (NCBA) pegged the estimated yield for the current season (October 2022 – September 2023) at 329.72 bales (170 kg each) compared to 312 bales last season.

The estimate is based on arrivals through the end of June and was finalized at the federation’s Zoom meeting on Saturday, according to Ramanoj Das Pop, a principal member of the NCBA. The association expected the total arrival of cotton till the end of June at 295.65 bales compared to 300 lakh bales.

higher than the ICA rating

According to Anand Popat, a merchant of cotton, yarn and cotton waste in Rajkot, the number of arrivals till the end of June is estimated to be 290 bales. Another 35 bales are expected to reach the market over the next three months.

The NCBA’s crop estimate is higher than the Indian Cotton Association’s forecast of 298 bales, a figure hotly contested by a section of traders.

According to the Cotton Production and Consumption Committee, a panel of various industry stakeholders including farmers, the crop production is likely to be 343.47 thousand bales.

The picture of cotton production this year was misty which led to crop estimates varying from 298 lakh bales to 360 lakh bales. This is because farmers tend to hold back their production this year after they were unable to achieve the high prices witnessed last season.

Last season, cotton prices exceeded INR 1 lakh halva (356 kg) but when the crop arrived in October, the prices fell to INR 70,000 levels. On the one hand capas (raw cotton), this season’s prices excluded less than 9,500 Egyptian pounds per quintal, compared to nearly 12,000 rupees last year.

current prices

Currently, cotton prices have dropped to $56,700 for candy, while kappas are priced at just over 7,000 rupees. In NCDEX, kapas are quoted at 1,482 Egyptian pounds (20 kg), while in the August MCX cotton contract contracts are quoted at $56,460 for candy.

In the past year, prices rose due to the rise in global prices as a result of the recovery in demand and the build-up of speculators’ positions on the June contracts. This was mainly because speculators built “volatile demand sales” in which prices are not fixed.

Prices rose to an 11-year high of 158.40 US cents per pound (INR 98,500) on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Currently, ICE cotton futures are priced at 81.20 cents a pound ($53,075 for candy).