N-E monsoon may find its feet after blowout triggered by twin cyclones 

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Erstwhile extremely severe cyclone Tej over the Arabian Sea made landfall as a weakened very severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday morning, while its Bay of Bengal cousin, very severe cyclone Hamoon, will have weakened as a severe cyclone and further as a cyclone while approaching the Bangladesh coast for landfall in the evening.

This wraps up the early flourish over the peninsular seas in the form of powerful storms along with commencement of the North-East monsoon, that took a hit in the bargain.

Landfall scenarios 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Tej lay centred over Yemen, about 60 km West of Al Ghaidah (Yemen) and 290 km West-South-West of Salalah (Oman) around noon, while Hamoon was parked about 330 km East of Paradip (Odisha); 290 km East-South-East of Digha (West Bengal); 190 km South of Khepupara (Bangladesh); and 305 km South-West of Chittagong (Bangladesh) by evening. Hamoon will have weakened twice over before crossing Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong as a cyclone with wind speeds of 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr. 

Rain for North-East 

While Tej reigned too far away from the Indian coast for any direct impact, Hamoon has brought rain to parts of East India and prospectively to the North-Eastern States. Light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places over Mizoram on Tuesday with isolated heavy rain over Mizoram and Tripura on both Tuesday and Wednesday and over South Assam on Tuesday. Light to moderate rain is likely at many places over Mizoram and Tripura on Thursday. Light to moderate rain is likely at many places over Nagaland and Manipur from Tuesday to Thursday and over East Arunachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday. 

N-E monsoon prospects 

The North-East monsoon appeared to be in a lull except over parts of Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu with the twin storms propelling away from the West and East coasts. During the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning, moderate to heavy rain lashed these areas. The monsoon is expected cover more parts of these States from the month-end and into early November, according to a short-term outlook from the IMD. According to global weather models, the stage for a hesitant revival may have been set already.

The IMD has indicated the possibility of fairly widespread light to moderate rain over extreme South Peninsular India (southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala) and Andhra Pradesh on October 30 and 31 while it would be isolated light to moderate over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The North-Eastern monsoon flows are shown organising themselves better from this phase. Global models suggest this may continue to hold into the first week of November.