Moderna sales beat estimates at $6.7 bn last year on rising vaccine share

Moderna Inc.’s sales for 2023 modestly beat analyst estimates as it eked out a bigger US market share for Covid shots, though the biotech giant reiterated a downbeat outlook for the year ahead.

 

The company reported $6.7 billion in unaudited Covid vaccine sales ahead of its presentation Monday at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. That includes includes $6.1 billion from its coronavirus shots — which have a 48% market share in the US — and $600 million in deferred revenue related its work with GAVI, a global health initiative to boost immunization. 

 

Analysts had projected $6.3 billion in revenue, including almost $6.2 billion in vaccine sales. Moderna had previously said it expected at least $6 billion in sales in 2023. Full financial results are set to be published on Feb. 22.

 

Moderna’s business has faced mounting pressure as the world pivots to living with Covid and vaccine demand diminishes. Last month, the company said its chief commercial officer is leaving as part of a leadership change intended to boost sales of the coronavirus shot and launch an RSV vaccine this year to lift revenue over the medium term. 

 

The company said Monday it still expects revenue to fall sharply this year to about $4 billion. It forecasts a return to sales growth in 2025 and to break even the following year.

 

Shares of Moderna rose 2.7% at 11:47 a.m. in New York trading. The stock fell 45% last year, compared with a 24% gain in the S&P 500.

 

Rival Pfizer Inc. has also struggled with its post-pandemic transition. Its shares tumbled to the lowest in a decade last month after the company’s sales forecast for its Covid shot and pill missed analyst estimates by a wide margin.

 

Moderna Chief Financial Officer James Mock said in an interview that the GAVI revenue was a one-time amount related to the recognition of deferred revenue from a contract signed during the pandemic. While the company has more than $13 billion in cash and equivalents, he said Moderna is focusing its efforts on developing its internal pipeline, which includes drugs for cancer and other vaccines. “I don’t anticipate a lot of sizable deals,” he said.

 

Moderna’s strategy to boost sales involves developing new uses for its messenger RNA technology to also fight flu, RSV, cancer and other ailments. In December, results of a study showed a personalized vaccine that Moderna developed with Merck & Co. helped prevent the recurrence of severe skin cancer for three years.

 

Investors are also starting to look a little more optimistic. Shares have rallied more than 60% since their recent low in November and, earlier this month, Oppenheimer analysts upgraded the stock to outperform on the potential for more vaccine approvals in the next two years. 

 

In Monday’s statement, Moderna said it expects data from a final-stage study of a new refrigerator-stable Covid-19 vaccine in the first half of 2024. This year, it also expects data from final-stage studies of its combination vaccine for flu and Covid, as well as for an mRNA vaccine for cytomegalovirus, a viral infection known as CMV.

 

Moderna’s RSV vaccine for older adults is going up against recently approved shots from Pfizer and GSK PLC, but Mock said he still expects it to do well. It might capture a third of what could grow to become a $6 billion to $8 billion market, he said.

First Published: Jan 09 2024 | 12:10 AM IST