La Nina may prevail during Sept 2024-February 2025, says APEC Climate Centre

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La Nina weather conditions, which bring more rain to Asia — particularly India, will likely prevail during September 2024-February 2025, the APEC Climate Center (APCC) has said. APCC, which has issued “La Nina Watch”, said the Nino3.4 index, which determines the weather event, is expected to be -0.5C to -0.7C during the period.   

CPC prediction

Earlier this week, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), an arm of the US weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions will continue for the next several months. La Niña is favoured to emerge during September-November (66 per cent chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74 per cent chance during November-January).

In July, CPC gave a 70 per cent chance for La Niña to emerge during August-October and a 79 per cent chance for the event persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 during November-January.

Meanwhile, in its monthly climate update, NOAA said there is a 77 per cent chance that 2024 could be the warmest year on record. In July, the weather agency said there was a 59 per cent chance of 2024 being the warmest on record. 

It said there was a 100 per cent chance of 2024 being one of the top five warmest years on record. Last week, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said 2024 will likely be the warmest year on record. 

Above-normal rains in India

NOAA said global land and ocean temperatures were 1.28°C higher during January-July — the warmest on record. The global land and ocean temperature in July was 1.21°C higher — the record warmest for July. Global land was  1.70°C warmer and ocean 0.98°C higher — again a record. 

APCC predicted enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation in India and the Bay of Bengal. It projected a strongly enhanced probability for above-normal temperatures for most of the globe except for the eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific and the central equatorial Pacific during September 2024-February 2025.

ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed since April after El Nino, which emerged in June 2023, ended. India was badly affected by El Nino, with at least 25 per cent of the country experiencing drought. 

This year, the country has received 5 per cent excess rainfall with conditions turning neutral. August has brought 15 per cent excess precipitation.