India will receive above-normal rainfall in July, predicts IMD

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India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast that the country will receive “above normal” rainfall this month, except in some areas in the north-eastern region. The north-eastern region may experience below-normal precipitation. The prediction should be a big relief for farmers who faced below-normal rains last month. July is the key period where maximum sowing takes place.

Addressing the media, IMD’s Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said rainfall is most likely to be more than 106 per cent of the long-period average of 28.04 cm in July, which is the wettest month of the monsoon season. However, he did not disclose what is the expected rainfall quantitatively. He maintained that the country will have “above normal” rainfall in the current monsoon season as predicted earlier.

“Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many parts of northeast India and some parts of north-west, east and south-east India,” he said.

Past precedents

He also said that in 20 out of the past 25 years, when June rainfall was “below normal” (less than 92 per cent of LPA), it has been seen that July was normal (94-106 per cent of LPA) or above normal.

Further, when June rainfall was below normal, the rainfall in the June-September monsoon season was normal or above-normal on 17 occasions out of past 25 years, he said.

As June rainfall was 11 per cent below normal, Mohapatra said it was mainly due to three factors — sluggish advancement of monsoon, less number of low pressure formation and non-favourable Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

“The MJO was in weak phase during most of the initial days of the June. Its strength increased towards end of June and it moved to Indian Ocean region, which helped for the formation of low pressure system over Head Bay of Bengal and that further helped India got some good rains in last few days,” he said.

IMD is hopeful of La Nina conditions developing during August and September which may help India get good rainfall, though Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be neutral in the current monsoon season.