IMD tones down wind speeds slightly, but Biparjoy will still pack a punch
the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Slightly reduced wind and wind speeds at landfall due to the severe hurricane pepperjoy By evening (Thursday) near the port of Jakau in northwest Gujarat. But this may not make any significant concession in terms of the expected intensity of the monstrous storm during the coast crossing.
pepperjoy It is located 180 km west-south-west of Jakau Port; 210 km west of Devbhumi Dwarka; 210 km west-south-west of Nalia; 290 km west-north-west of Porbandar; and 270 km south-south-west of Karachi in Pakistan. The IMD now assesses that the hurricane will have sustained winds of maximum speeds of 115-125 km/h up to 140 km/h.
Also read: Cyclone Biparjoy less than 200 km off the coast of Gujarat; 74,000 have been evacuated
Heavy rain forecast
Light to moderate rain is expected in most places in Kach, Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar districts of Gujarat on Thursday, with heavy to very heavy rain in a few places and very heavy rainfall in isolated places. It will be heavy to very heavy over the regions of Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi and Junagarh, and will be isolated to heavy to very heavy over the rest of Saurashtra and northern Gujarat.
For the next two days, light to moderate rain is likely in most places over northern Gujarat and adjoining southern Rajasthan on Friday, with heavy to very heavy rain in isolated places. IMD said similar forecasts will be valid on Saturday for southeastern Rajasthan and northern neighboring state of Gujarat.
Economic loss estimate
RMSI, a global consulting firm for geospatial technology solutions, has assessed the hurricane as extremely dangerous pepperjoy It could lead to an estimated economic loss of around 830 crore ($100 million) due to wind, storm surge and flooding for the exposures considered (listed in the tables below). Agriculture is expected to suffer the greatest losses.
He analyzed the potential wind effect from pepperjoy Based on the IMD bulletin released on June 12 at 11.30am. The very severe cyclone will greatly affect the coastal areas of Gujarat. The detailed impact in terms of economic loss is shown in the tables.
Table 1: Impact on Premises (Rs Lakh)
| Danger | residential | commercial | industrial | the total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| winds | 550 | 150 | 300 | 1,000 |
| storms | 420 | 20 | 400 | 840 |
| Flood | 650 | 50 | 400 | 1100 |
Table 2: Impact on Exposure Items (Rs Lakh)
| Danger | communications | Basic facilities | services | agriculture | the total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| winds | 80 | 60 | 1800 | 75100 | 77,040 |
| leap | 4200 | 170 | 800 | – | 5170 |
| Flood | 880 | 160 | 70 | 120 | 1,230 |
RMSI cited IMD’s original predictions that pepperjoy It is likely to cross Saurashtra, Kutch and the adjacent Pakistani coast on Thursday night as a very intense cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds of 125-135 km/h, gusts to 150 km/h and later weakening to a depression on Friday. An orange warning has been issued for the coasts of Saurashtra and Kutch.
Storm surge warning map from RMSI based on IMD’s forecast track pepperjoy. | Image source: RMSI
Also read: Typhoon Pepparjoy: Western Railways cancels 7 more trains
Gujarat is likely to bear the immediate impact, with the storm destroying existing homes, communication networks and crops, as well as damaging power lines in the districts of Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Murbi, Junagarh and Rajkot.
Residents along the coast of Gujarat are likely to be affected by the approach of a very intense cyclone pepperjoy. | Image source: RMSI
Rainfall intensity is likely to increase from light to moderate to very heavy rains in isolated locations over Saurashtra, Kutch and Jamnagar. Low-lying areas face the risk of gusts of about 2-3 meters in these areas during downhill.