IMD revises June rainfall forecast to ‘below normal’ from earlier predicted ‘normal’

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised the monsoon forecast for June to “below normal” from the earlier prediction of “normal” rainfall after the monsoon’s progress has stalled over the past few days.

Rainfall between 92 per cent and 108 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm is categorised as ‘normal’, whereas it is ‘below normal’ if precipitation for a month is less than 92 per cent of the LPA.

“Normal to above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south peninsula and some areas of the North-East. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of the North-West and the adjoining Central region and some areas of North-East India,” IMD said in a statement on Tuesday night.

In its forecast for June, issued in the last week of May, IMD had said the average rainfall over the country as a whole “is most likely to be normal.”

According to a previous forecast, above normal monthly rainfall was likely over most areas of the south peninsula and adjoining areas of central India, and over isolated areas of north-west and north-east India. But “below normal” rainfall was predicted for June over many areas of northern and eastern parts of northwest India and the eastern part of Central India, and over some areas over northeast India.

Rainfall over the country as a whole during June 1-18 was 64.5 mm, which is 20 per cent less than its Long Period Average (LPA) of 80.6 mm.