Heavy rain seen for Kerala, Karnataka but monsoon not in sight yet
After an agonizing wait of at least 10 days, the monsoon It advanced into parts of the southwest Bay of Bengal, more parts of the southeast Bay, the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Sea and some parts of the East Central Bay on Wednesday in what appeared to be the initial signs of its broad advance based on both sides of Peninsular India (Bay of Bengal). and the Arabian Sea).
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) The aforementioned conditions are favorable for further progress in some parts of the Maldives and the region of the Comoros on the Arabian Sea side; some other parts of the southwest Gulf; the remaining parts of the Southeast Gulf; some other parts of Central Bay; and some parts of the Northeast Bay (closer to Myanmar) over the next two to three days.
Heavy rain forecast
Earlier in the morning, the International Institute for Management Development predicted the possibility of heavy rain in isolated places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and the southern interior on Tuesday and Wednesday around the time of the onset of the usual monsoon although it was not seen anywhere near. Instead, the rain will result from the atmosphere’s response to the movement of a deep westerly disturbance, the second on a trot, across northern, northwest and eastern India.
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A five-day forecast by IMD said light to somewhat moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and high winds is likely over Kerala and Lakshadweep while it will spread over inland southern Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
The temperature of the Arabian Sea
The Arabian Sea is heating up so fast that the Bay of Bengal lines up which has a sea surface temperature of 32°C and unleashed the super cyclonic quasi-storm. Mocha earlier this month. In hindsight, it became clear that the cyclone was instrumental in delaying the monsoon’s advance in the far southeastern Gulf as the IMD announced its onset on May 19. High up to 32 already on Tuesday the bears are watching closely.
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Some global models have hinted at the formation of cyclones in the Arabian Sea at a time when the monsoon is likely to be delayed during the first week of June. The IMD model also tends to subscribe to this possibility timed towards the end of the first week of June or the early second. If this happens, his forward progress could be negatively affected.
Spin maze
The western disturbance lies in a northwesterly to southeasterly basin extending from northeastern Pakistan to western India, and extending in depth to Mumbai. Circular cyclone offspring are present over southwestern Rajasthan, which borders Pakistan. An east-west basin of the cyclonic circulation extends to northwest Madhya Pradesh. A third north-south basin of the cyclonic circulation passes over southern Chhattisgarh into inland Tamil Nadu.
changeable weather
These formations are capable of setting up volatile weather in these regions. Apart from South India, light to moderate rain is likely mostly scattered with thunderstorms, lightning and the occasional wind/gale (speeds of 40-50 km/h up to 60 km/h) over northwest India until Wednesday with a peak Activity on Tuesday and a gradual decrease from Thursday. The monsoons cannot enter the mainland until such time as these formations dissipate and cease to exist.
Hail storms likely over northern Rajasthan, Jammu division and Himachal Pradesh on Tuesday and over Uttarakhand until Wednesday. Thunderstorms/gale winds of 60-70 km/h are likely over Rajasthan on Tuesday and over Uttarakhand on Wednesday. Heavy rains are likely in isolated places in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday.