Heavy rain predicted for Uttarakhand brings to fore ‘fresh landslide threat’
The danger from heavy rain refuses to abate over parts of floods and landslides that have hit northwestern India with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting light to moderate moderately widespread with heavy to very heavy rains over Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Over the next two days, heavy rain was isolated after that.
Isolated heavy rains are also likely over eastern Rajasthan from Thursday to Sunday and over Himachal Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday.
Poor terrain
Uttarakhand has already seen heavy rains, according to global GIS consulting firm RMSI that provides geospatial technology, modeling and analytics solutions. Its terrain is very prone to landslides as it is mostly a mountainous terrain. With a heavy rain warning in effect for the next five days, there is a strong possibility of several landslides across the state. So far this month, landslides have already claimed six lives in the state, RMSI notes in an assessment shared with Business line.
Landslide risk scenario
The attached figure depicts the possible landslide scenario for Thursday. On Wednesday, a ‘very high’ probability was predicted in Almora and Nainital districts, while on Thursday the risk was reduced in Almora although Nainital remains at high risk. Certain parts of Garhwal, Tehri Garhwal, and Champawat are also in the “very high” danger zone. Under typical projections, around 10-15 percent of Uttarakhand’s road network was at risk on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the RMSI assessment.
The length of the road is under possible landslide risk in Uttarakhand on Thursday. | Image source: RMSI
Kumaon District
Champawat and Nainital districts are likely to receive significantly heavy rains in the Kumaon region. A few locations in Champawat, particularly in the central and southern parts and those adjacent to Nainital, are at “high” levels of landslide risk. Some areas to look for are the district headquarters of Champawat, Maywati, Dudori, Shukhi Dhang, Bhanuli, the stretch of NH connecting Champawat to Tamli, and from Dhanaulti to Champawat via Khashu. Roads around Nanny Lake, New Hampshire connecting Jeolikote to Bhawali and Nainital to Kala Dongi, and sections of road at Reetha Sahib in Nainital are also at “significant” risk.
Garhwal area:
In Garhwal district Garhwal, Tehri Garhwal districts and adjoining parts of Chamoli are likely to receive heavy rains in the next few days. Some of the areas to look out for in Garhwal are Pauri, Devprayag, Lansdowne, Dugadda, and Sinala. In Tehri Garhwal, Devprayag, district headquarters of Tehri Garhwal, Srinagar and NH stretch connecting Tehri Garhwal to Gangotri via Uttarkashi are at ‘high’ risk. Of the more than 68,000 km of road network in Uttarakhand, RMSI’s landslide hazard model has marked 5,500 km under different hazard levels.