Heavy rain forecast to persist over parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu

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As expected, a low-pressure area formed over the East-Central Arabian Sea on Wednesday, the first after a predecessor intensified as extremely severe cyclone Tej over the adjoining South-West Arabian Sea last week and made landfall over Yemen. No such rapid intensification is indicated this time round, according to various model outlooks.

In addition, a cyclonic circulation lies over the Comorin area, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Wednesday evening. The two systems are acting in tandem to pull in the easterly to north-easterly flows over the South Peninsula. Light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain is expected over the region for the next three days. 

Rain for South Peninsula 

The IMD had forecast isolated heavy rain over Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, and South Interior Karnataka on Wednesday as well as over Kerala and Tamil Nadu on both Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated very heavy rain will also lash South Kerala and South Tamil Nadu on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall has already been reported from isolated places in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Coastal Karnataka on Tuesday and until Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, the IMD indicated that light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain is likely to persist over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the next seven days, the IMD said. This is an indication of how the Bay of Bengal might continue to remain in an active state under the influence of supportive weather to the East over the upstream South China Sea/West Pacific.

Western disturbances 

Scattered to fairly widespread rain was forecast over South Konkan, Goa, and South Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday while it would be light to moderate to isolated to scattered over Konkan, Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra during the next three days both from the low over East-Central Arabian Sea and a couple of western disturbances dipping over North-West India.

The first such has already called in near and was located over South-Central Pakistan and adjoining North-West Rajasthan on Wednesday evening. The successor disturbance, also in the form of a trough, lay over South-West Iran and adjoining South-East Afghanistan, the IMD said. Under their influence, light to moderate isolated rain/snow was forecast over Jammu-Kashmir- Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on Wednesday and over Uttarakhand on Thursday and Friday. 

Rains for plains, too 

It would be scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow over Jammu- Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on Thursday and Friday and isolated to scattered over Himachal Pradesh from Wednesday to Friday. Over the plains, there would be isolated light rain over Haryana and Chandigarh on these days; over Punjab and West Rajasthan on Thursday; and over Delhi on Friday. No active western disturbance is expected for the next 10 days, though towards the South-East, a powerful storm may spin up over the South-West China Sea with indications for the Bay of Bengal to the immediate West and the North-East monsoon at large.