Fresh clouds over South-East Bay revive hopes for monsoon, breaking jinx
the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the monsoon to resume its much-delayed daytime journey today (Monday) from the South Andaman Sea, Nancore (Nicobar) and neighboring southeastern Bay of Bengal, where it was halted for the past 10 days. IMD frequently set two-day windows during this period for the monsoon to begin, which it refused to oblige.
Delayed over Myanmar
On Monday, continued uncertainty around the southeastern Gulf gave some credence to the IMD’s revised assessment on the ground, bolstered by the announcement that the offensive had begun on neighboring Myanmar. This in itself came at least seven to ten days later than normal. Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology now expects two low pressure areas to form over the Andaman Sea and Gulf over the next four to five days, one of which may intensify into a depression.
During this period, the monsoon will be moderate to strong over the Andaman Sea and South Gulf and mild elsewhere over the Gulf. As usual, the monsoon entered southern Myanmar first on Thursday. Monsoon may advance to delta regions over the next five days; Central Myanmar region from June 3 to 6; And the whole country during the period from June 7 to 10.
A reference to Kerala?
The question is whether the monsoon will hold the delay of many days before announcing its arrival during the stops over Sri Lanka and Kerala. Forecasts by two US agencies of fast-falling water in the lower atmosphere (indicating clouds and rain) appear to delay the onset of the monsoon over Kerala until a period of 10 days between June 7 and 16. This could at best fall within the IMD’s June 4 start window (plus or minus four days), or even a more slight delay.
The IMD said Monday morning that the northern boundary of the monsoon continued to pass through Nankuri. Conditions are favorable for further advancement in parts of the southern Gulf, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands at any time. The short-term forecast indicates the formation of a weak cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea, near the coast of Myanmar.
Western unrest rule
Meanwhile, to the west, an active westerly disturbance brought heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and strong winds over many parts of northwest India. Sunday. It was seen anchored over Himachal Pradesh as a cyclonic spin on Monday morning, even as fresh disturbances occurred in far eastern Iran, preparing to enter Afghanistan.
A new disturbance has been detected
It has established a circular cyclone offspring over southwestern Rajasthan and neighboring Pakistan. An east-west basin linked it with northeastern Madhya Pradesh through eastern Rajasthan. Another cyclonic circulation is anchored over Telangana, while a north-south basin extends from southeast Madhya Pradesh to southern Tamil Nadu, through Vidarbha and a cyclonic circulation over Telangana, Rayalaseema and northern Tamil Nadu.
This network of cyclonic flows and basins must clear up completely before the monsoons can establish themselves over the mainland. This will not happen until the deep western disturbances, with spurs that pierce the south in the form of weather-friendly fluctuating basins, with built-in cyclonic circulation, stop moving across the plains of northwest India. From this perspective, it seems that the next unrest spotted in eastern Iran will be the last in the current series.