First low-pressure area next week to drive monsoon to parts of Central India, North India
A new cyclonic cycle is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Odisha by Monday (June 26) and is expected to establish the first significant monsoon low pressure area by Wednesday and bring monsoon rains to central India and northern India, said an update from the Indian Meteorological Department. (IMD).
Slow, measured progress
From Thursday, the monsoon is at or very early in parts of eastern India while it lags over parts of peninsular India, the whole of central India, and parts of western and northwest India for several days.
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It is due to reach the national capital in the next three days, but it will only reach parts of Peninsular India, Maharashtra, and central and northern India by early next week (starting Monday).
Wet eastern monsoon
As if preparing to make room for the new, existing “low” (tornado remnants pepperjoy) The fading over central Uttar Pradesh over the past few days will start fading tomorrow (Saturday).
A basin extending from southern Punjab and extending into the system will reach the Odisha-West Bengal coast off the northwest Bay of Bengal by Saturday. This will serve as a conduit for the wet eastern monsoon winds from the Gulf to blow across the northern parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Heavy rain on the west coast
The current stalled cyclonic circulation off the coasts of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha will be a proxy for the subsequent ‘low’ under observation of a friendly eastern zone of monsoon disturbance from above.
The forecast for the week of June 29 to July 5 indicates that heavy to very heavy rain is likely along the western coast and Gujarat while it will be heavily isolated over the rest of these areas.
Above normal for the northeast
A continuous heavy rainfall regime will continue over northeastern India with heavy to very heavy rains. Scattered to somewhat scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible over many parts of northwest India except western Rajasthan during the first half of the week before fading.
Overall, precipitation may remain above normal over the west coast, Gujarat and adjoining areas in west-central and north-eastern India, and close to normal over the remaining parts of the country. But it is likely to be lower than normal over the hills of northwest India, parts of eastern and central India, and some parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.