Exporters project record coffee output for 2024-25 at 3.8 lakh tonnes

Exporters are projecting a record Indian coffee of 3.8 lakh tonnes for the current 2024-25 crop year starting October for which the harvest is currently going on for both the varieties — arabica and robusta — in the key producing regions.

“We expect the crop to be around 3.8 lakh tonnes (lt) comprising 80,000 tonnes of arabicas and 3 lakh tonnes of robustas,” said Ramesh Rajah, President, Coffee Exporters Association. “We think the robusta crop is better, while arabica is partially lower,” Rajah said.

The exporters’ projections are higher than the Government’s estimates for the year. Recently, in a written response to Parliament, the Commerce Minister informed that the coffee production (provisional) for 2024-25 is estimated to be 3.633 lt. For 2023-24, the coffee production stood at a record 3.605 lt.

Climate impact

Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman, UPASI Coffee Committee, said unfavourable weather continued to hurt the growers during the year. The robusta output is likely to be around 2.5-2.6 lt for 2024-25, while arabica production is seen around 90,000 tonnes, he said.

“The robusta crop is holding on in areas whereever the growers had taken up irrigation. In the non-irrigated areas, the crop is down. Also, the coffee crop in general had faced adverse climatic conditions, which could impact the output,” Balakrishna said.

Rajah said the arabica harvest was delayed and started in mid-December in a big way and that the arrivals have picked up. “Robusta harvest also has started and so also the arrivals. The robusta crop in Karnataka is good. There was some impact of the weather on robusta crop in Wayanad, which we think could be made up with Karnataka. The arabica output, because of the bad weather conditions, could be marginally lower. I think overall it’s 3.80 lt plus or minus usually 5 per cent,” he said.

Further, Rajah said the coffee arrivals are picking up but selling is not very active as growers are reluctant to sell. “The order book is also not heavy. There’s not much heavy buying, they are not much selling. But we think once the flow picks up, particularly in Robusta, there should be increased selling,” Rajah said.

Price outlook

Commenting on the price outlook, Rajah said, most people feel that it should be flat. “It will be about 10 per cent up or down, but not too much of a big variation. We don’t see any big upward movement movement in robusta prices because of good offering by Vietnam, while for arabica the prices depends on the Brazil crop,” Rajah said.

Praveen Kumar Kolimarla of Agrani Coffee and Commodities, said, “the volatile trend in coffee prices with an upward bias is expected to continue at least for the foreseeable future say for six months to a year till there’s improvement in the supplies from large producers like Brazil and Vietnam”.

Coffee prices have been bullish over the past couple of years on tight global supplies. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) closed 2024 up 40 per cent averaging 229.34 US cents per pound. The I-CIP reached new highs in December 2024 and achieved the highest monthly average since 314.96 US cents/lb (nominal prices) in April 1977.

High prices combined with a strong US dollar have caused issues at origins since this has greatly increased the financial cost of market operations, the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) said in its recent report.