Demand For Section 8 Housing Will Remain High—Here’s Why

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 42% of people who moved in 2022 did so for housing-related reasons. Of those, 7.7% specifically moved in search of more affordable housing. And a recent USA Today survey found that 77% of American households cannot afford a median-priced home of $495,750. 

All this means affordable housing is in greater need than ever before. Although many assume that means Section 8 subsidized housing, that is not necessarily true. Middle class Americans—teachers, essential workers, and government employees—can no longer afford to live in expensive cities.

The USA Today report found that many places in the Midwest are still affordable; in major coastal centers, notably California, housing is out of reach for even relatively well-paid middle-class workers.

The Case of Riaz Capital

Riaz Taplin of Riaz Capital was an early adopter of the concept of workforce housing, seeing the writing on the wall almost a decade ago. 

Born into a San Francisco real estate family specializing in managing multifamily housing, Taplin initially went in a different direction to the family business. Upon graduating from the London School of Economics, he focused on flipping luxury homes—a business model that ended abruptly during the financial crash of 2008. He saw a dire need for affordable housing for San Francisco’s much-needed middle class.

One of his business models was to purchase large single-family houses or small multiunits using investor capital and renovate them so each room had a bathroom, thus not interfering with zoning. He then rented these properties to middle-class workers who needed a stylish but affordable place in the city to stay. The business grew in scale, from 80 to 800 tenants from 2011 to 2016, with 945 units transacted between 2014 and 2016. 

Today, Riaz Capital owns and operates about 3,600 units and has 2,000 units or residences in the pipeline. Of the total, roughly 3,000 are geared towards workforce housing, most in Oakland and some in San Diego. 

“What we focused on was solving the problem of ‘how do you house single-income professionals in urban environments,’” Taplin told BiggerPockets. “Due to the significant rise in the number of single-income households over the past 25 years, the housing stock is not kept up with this group.”

Making Workforce Housing Recognized and Acceptable to Freddie and Fannie

Taplin’s instincts proved prescient, making him one of the Bay Area’s most successful workforce housing developers, focusing on Oakland.  

Taplin says:

“What I’m most proud of is the idea that we had something that was nothing more than something we’d drawn on the back of a napkin in 2018, and as of today, we built 500 units of this typology. We got cities to give us permits to build them, banks to give us construction loans, investors to give us money, and we’ve housed people and made them happy residents. Today, we have gotten full acceptance of this sub-asset class within the umbrella of multifamily as an accepted form of housing and have gotten Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lend against them as if they were typical multifamily housing units, at their highest affordable discount. In other words, we’ve gone from napkin to full market acceptance in eight years.”

The COVID Challenge

Taplin, who was well established within the Bay Area’s affluent tech community, explains how he has funded his ventures: “We partner with investors that take a long-term approach to owning assets. We think about the asset’s full life cycle and can optimize for both operating and capital costs at the front end. We also have capital partners that think the same way.” 

Often, that means having investors fund the purchase and renovation of a project, which Taplin then refinances, making investors whole, factoring in their profit before recycling their cash on other ventures.

The greatest challenge to Taplin’s business was the COVID-19 pandemic and the mass exodus from California. “The massive emigration from gateway markets, namely the Bay Area, significantly hurt our housing ecosystem, but nothing hurt more than the fundamental breakdown in government functioning,” he says. “At the end of the day, when you’re building things like housing infrastructure, your partner is the local municipality or jurisdiction in which you work. In all partnerships, be they marriages, friendships, or business relationships, you have to be able to trust your partner. And fundamentally, being a housing developer in the Bay Area it’s been very difficult to trust our partner, the local government.”

Taplin cites the lack of cleanliness and orderliness, as well as increased homelessness, as particular issues: “This breakdown in government functionality led to a domino effect that made it more difficult to build, made it more difficult to coordinate and resolve problems between agencies, and fundamentally made the experience for our residents significantly worse.”

The Ongoing Need for Workforce Housing

Despite this, as cities finally show signs of recovery from COVID-19 and companies require workers to return to the office, Taplin sees demand for workforce housing increasing as urban centers grapple with the cost of living. 

“At a minimum, we’re going to get a reversion to the mean, which is that the suburbs’ mega-growth of the last four years likely slows,” Taplin says. “Younger people, who typically want to start their post-education lives in an urban area, will likely contribute to the faster growth in cities over the coming years. Secondly, it’s important to remember that this massive emigration over the last four years probably represents almost a decade’s worth of outward migration.”

With that in mind, he sees cultivating an affordable housing portfolio in major cities, possibly except for New York because of its saturation and competition, as a viable, ongoing business model for years to come. 

“Now is the time to reinvest in these gateway markets that people have thought of as declining as they go back into growth mode,” Taplin says. “For example, San Francisco County is now the fastest-growing county on a percentage basis in California, and California gained in population last year, which is still not the national narrative on either of these places.”

7,400 Submissions Per Hour for NYC’s Section 8 Program

On the opposite coast, in a sign of the desperate need for affordable housing, New York City recently reopened its Section 8 housing program after stopping it 15 years ago. 

Nearly a quarter of a million lower-income New Yorkers rent apartments on the private market using vouchers. Under the program, people spend 30% of their income on rent while the government pays for the rest. 

When applications were reopened, the city received 7,400 submissions per hour, more than double the volume that would ultimately land on the city’s revamped Section 8 waitlist.

According to the New York Times, quoting an analysis by the New York University Furman Center, in 2018, more than 70% of families with children could find an apartment to rent with their voucher within a year, but in 2022, it was 58%. In 2023, the rental vacancy rate was 1.4%, the lowest in more than 50 years. The rate was even lower for cheaper apartments.

“The data is clear: The demand to live in our city is far outpacing our ability to build housing,” Mayor Eric Adams said in a statement announcing the numbers. “New Yorkers need our help, and they need it now.”

Matthew Murphy, executive director of the Furman Center, told the Times: “Just finding housing in New York, even when you have this assistance, is difficult. On top of that, we know that voucher holders face discrimination.”

$30 Billion for the Government’s Housing Choice Voucher Program 

The government has been pouring money into the need for more affordable housing. In May, HUD announced $30 billion in renewal funding for the Housing Choice Voucher Program (HCV). This funding will help Public Housing Authorities (PHAs) continue to assist families and individuals who need affordable housing options. 

Housing vouchers assist over 2.3 million families in need of housing, including families with children, older adults, veterans, and people with disabilities, making it the most effective intervention to reduce homelessness and housing instability.

Home prices have increased at least 60% over the past decade, adjusted for inflation, with a quarter of renters— some 12 million households—spending more than half their income on housing. In recent months, there have been several housing initiatives aimed at lowering the cost of housing from Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren and the Biden administration, with the use of ADUs allowed in some of the country’s most expensive cities.

Interestingly, however, Republican-led red states are generally cheaper to live in than blue states due to fewer construction and environmental rules, which allows housing supply to expand faster, although the housing crisis is one of the notable issues where both sides of the aisle have worked together to find a solution, with both parties stripping their city’s NIMBY laws.

Final Thoughts

If aspiring landlords want a never-ending list of qualified tenants, offering affordable housing is a no-brainer. For those investors fearful of governmental oversight, particularly with inspections that come with providing Section 8 housing, workforce housing aimed at the employed middle class in urban areas could be a more viable option. Once frowned upon, renting stylishly renovated apartments by the room to qualified tenants could help landlords overcome the issue of cash flowing with expensive real estate while assisting tenants in finding a cost-effective, comfortable place to live—a win-win.

Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.