Cotton acreage trails by 9% at 110 lh till August 12
The acreage in cotton in the current kharif cropping season is down by around 9 per cent till August 12 at 110.49 lakh hectares (lh) over 121.24 lh in the same period last year.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI), the apex trade body, expects the acreage to be around 113 lh this year over 127 lh in the previous year.
Addressing the southern cotton trade recently at Coimbatore, CAI President Atul Ganatra said, “This season we have noticed that cotton farmers are shifting to other crops mainly due to lower yields and as cost of production for Indian farmers is very high.”
Changing weather pattern
Regarding the crop outlook for the upcoming 2024-25 season, Ganatra said “it is too early to predict anything because from last two years the rain pattern has changed and monsoon only starts from July in place of June and the rain continues till October end.”
“Also due to global warming, the variability in the rain pattern has increased. This is the main reason which affects the Indian cotton yield which has already come down from 600 kg to 410 kg per hectare,” Ganatra said.
Further, the CAI president said the cotton balance sheet for next year’s opening stocks will be a little tight on higher exports to Bangladesh. “This year unexpectedly cotton export has increased from 15 lakh bales to 28 lakh bales due to good demand from Bangladesh.”
During 2023-24, India’s cotton production and consumption has been the same at around 325 lakh bales. India’s cotton exports will be 28 lakh bales while imports will be 13 lakh bales. The gap of 15 lakh bales will be reduced from last year’s stock, he said.
Availability
As per CAI estimates, spinning mills are now having 25 lakh bales stock, while ginners are holding some 15 lakh bales stock and Cotton Corporation of India some 20 lakh bales stock. Another 10 lakh bales arrivals are expected during August-September. “So a total of 70 lakh bales are available for cotton consumption up to September 30 for the mills. If the new crop is delayed then the situation would get a little tight for covering cotton for the mills,” he added.
Cotton consumption in North Indian States is 90-95 lakh bales. In South India, the consumption is around 125 lakh bales, while in Central India consumption the offtake is 145 to 150 lakh bales. Total consumption is about 360 lakh bales. Since mills are running at 90 per cent capacity, consumption can be taken at 325 lakh bales.
He suggested that the associations come together and try to have one hedging contract for both cotton and cotton yarn.
Ganatra said the current season pressing can go up to around 322-325 lakh bales up to September 30. The actual production during the 2023-24 season was only 300 lakh bales. There was a carry forward of 25 lakh bales of raw cottonfrom the previous year . “ I don’t think there will be any raw cotton carry forward from this season to next season as farmers are in sell off mood. Our new season will start from October 1 with no raw cotton stock with farmers. Whoever is making the crop estimation for next season has to consider this 25 lakh bales carry forward of last year cotton will be a short in calculation of new season estimation of crop,” Ganatra added.