CAI revises upwards cotton crop projection to 311.18 lakh bales

The trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised India’s cotton production up at 311.18 bales (170 kg each) for the year 2022-23. The revision of crop numbers came after the trade body convened a meeting of cotton stakeholders from across the country to come up with an “accurate estimate of the cotton yield”. The meeting was held in Mumbai on July 10.

In its May estimate, CAI forecast cotton production at 298.65 lakh bales, the lowest level since 2008-09 (290 lakh bales.). This was in contrast to the central government’s forecast of 343.47 lakh bales and the Cotton Production and Consumption Commission’s (CCPC) estimate of 337.24 lakh bales for 2022-23.

Crop estimates for 2021-22 have been revised to 299.16 bales.

“The meeting discussed urgent government statements submitted by each government association and other inputs by stakeholders,” said a statement issued by the center.

The meeting was attended by 55 members including members of the Crop Committee of CAI, who stated that the total arrivals for 2022-23 were 281.98 bales including 171.73 bales in the central region, 65.12 bales in the southern region and 38.95 bales in the northern region.

The total availability of cotton for the year is estimated to be around 315.98 lakh bales including 10 bales from imports till 30th June 2023 in addition to 24 bales from opening stock. Total cotton consumption is estimated at 238 lakh bales, and 13.50 lakh bales of exports till 30th June 2023.

global outlook

Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service estimates that cotton production has risen by “more than 1.7 million bales this month to 118 million because larger crops in Brazil, India and Australia have offset slight declines in production in Argentina.” .”

In the global trade outlook, it is expected to “down slightly” to 43.5 million bales, but more than 6.0 million higher compared to a year earlier. Increased exportable supplies in Brazil offset lower shipments in the United States, Australia and India.

End of the World inventories rose by more than 1.7 million bales to 94.5 million – the highest expected level in four years and mostly due to lower consumption. The US average farm price for 2023/24 is expected to fall 1 cent to 76 cents, the FAS memo said.

The 29mm Cotton Guj variety was quoted in India at Rs 55,600 per candy (each of 356 kg cotton processed).