Brewing ‘low’ off Myanmar may perk up monsoon from later this week

The northeastern Bay of Bengal may experience low pressure of its own in the next few days, even in the face of a raging cyclone Mawar in the western Pacific.

A outlook by the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology said the ‘depression’ could creep along Myanmar’s coast mostly, but it could pull the monsoon current into force over the greater Bay of Bengal.

This is the best breaking news on the weather front on Wednesday even as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) extended horizon monsoon makes further headway in the Gulf for another two days.

Monsoon rains may be announced over Myanmar during this period, delayed from a week to 10 days. The start will also materialize in Sri Lanka, about a week late.

Light to moderate rain

US agencies report that Sri Lanka could see a weak to moderate start, even as it is suspected that the monsoon could enter Kerala along southwestern India on or after June 6.

Until then, peninsula South India, Sri Lanka and the Bay of Bengal are likely to slip under a subnormal rainfall regime despite the beneficial ‘drag’ exerted by the ‘low’ off the coast of Myanmar.

The Myanmar Meteorological Agency has already predicted that the monsoon will be “weak to moderate” during this period.

El Niño phenomenon continues to emerge

Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains in a “neutral” state (neither La Niña nor El Niño).

Tropical Pacific temperatures may reach El Niño thresholds sooner rather than later, although the response from the atmosphere (El Niño is a “coupled” phenomenon between the ocean and the atmosphere) has not been encouraging so far.

The coupling allows the warm ocean to heat the atmosphere above it, after which the moisture-rich air rises and evolves into rain clouds. Exactly the opposite occurs in the western Pacific Ocean (closer to India).

Double the usual chance

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to note that there is an increased risk of an El Niño event this year, at least twice the usual chance.

On Wednesday, the Madden-Julian pulse was a moderately strong, rain-friendly oscillation (MJO) over the western Pacific Ocean (which is unfavorable for India).

If the MJO pulse maintains its strength, it will likely weaken the trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, would lead to further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, setting the stage for El Niño.

Western disturbances

Back home, the tornado swept over central Pakistan Wednesday morning even as active western unrest continued from the Iranian neighborhood.

Both systems are expected to move to northwest India one by one over the next three to four days.

It will bring moisture a great deal from the Arabian Sea, and open up the basins which reach to the south of the country, and cause torrential rains, thunderstorms, lightning, strong winds, and hail through many parts.