Bay of Bengal may stay active for a fortnight, support monsoon conditions
Global model projections indicate that the Bay of Bengal will remain active until the last week of July, thanks to increasing monsoon flows inland and across Indochina from the South China Sea/Western Pacific Ocean and the formation of beneficial cyclonic cycles/low pressure areas in the process.
The US Climate Prediction Center reports that a typhoon is likely to form over the western Pacific Ocean heading toward the South China Sea, capable of sending outflows into the Gulf, and supporting rainfall over eastern India from July 12-18. This is likely to continue into the following week. (July 19-25), it kept West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and parts of eastern Madhya Pradesh wet.
Cyclonic rotation
The US National Center for Environmental Prediction considers that the precipitation system may flow into neighboring central and northwest India, apart from the western coast. This phase is likely to be moderated by cyclonic flows/”dips” as they form in the Gulf and track these regions. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted in its numerical weather forecast about intense activity around the coast of West Bengal from July 14 to 17, likely to cause these systems.
rains for eastern India
The IMD forecast issued on Friday and valid for the next five days said that eastern India and its adjacent north-east will see a wide spread of light to moderate rain with heavy to very heavy rains across the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur. Isolated heavy rains are likely over Odisha over the next 5 days; Bihar for three days from Sunday; and Jharkhand on Tuesday.
The rainfall deficit across India has shrunk dramatically over the past 24 hours to 3 per cent. This is due to the continuing rains on the western coast, west and northwest of India. Some sections of the Met Div in Central India and South India saw some swings to positive anomalies, which helped reduce the deficit. These included Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Karnataka, South Inner Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Positive rain anomaly
Central India experiencing a lack of light to moderate to moderately widespread rain will see widespread rainfall with isolated torrential rains on Saturday and Sunday. This is even as the overall monsoon disturbance shear zone approaches the region. The crucial overland monsoon basin remained ideally south of its natural location while the marine basin extended from Gujarat to the coast of Kerala.
Elsewhere, a land-based cyclonic circulation hung over Jharkhand, while its permanent twin was located over the northeastern Arabian Sea and adjacent to Gujarat. In this vibrant setting, an incoming western turmoil is poised to make its entrance. On Friday, he was on his way to cross an international border and enter the westernmost point of Rajasthan.
The direction of rain in the west coast
Light to moderate precipitation is widespread with heavy to very heavy rainfall over southern India. Over western India, widespread light/moderate rain with heavy to very heavy precipitation may continue over Konkan, Goa, Ghat districts of Madhya Maharashtra on Saturday. Similar conditions will continue over Gujarat for the next four days, isolated from very heavy falls over Saurashtra and Kutch on Saturday.
Northwest rain
In northwest India, it is likely to be light to moderate with widespread to widespread precipitation with isolated torrential rains over the next 4-5 days. Isolated heavy rains are likely over Uttarakhand until Sunday; over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday; over Punjab and Haryana on Saturday; and over Uttar Pradesh on Mondays and Tuesdays.