Heavy rain may sustain over South Peninsula, West Coast for two more days
Heavy rains may continue over the southern peninsula, mainly along the western coast, for another two days while similar conditions in Konkan, Goa and adjoining ghat regions may last a little longer, and over Gujarat for an extended five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Thursday.
This has been attributed, for example, to the proximity of the monsoon basin to the south of its natural location, which indicates the presence of an active monsoon. The area of east-west disturbance has also moved north, closer to Konkan and Goa even as the marine basin remains active from southern Gujarat to northern Kerala. Last but not least, the cyclonic circulation continued over the northeastern Arabian Sea and neighboring Gujarat.
The rain deficit decreases
Rain deficit for the country as a whole narrowed to 7 percent on Wednesday, with northwest India leading with a recorded 37 percent rainfall excess, the only homogeneous region out of the four to do so. The deficit was highest in the southern peninsula (-32 percent), followed by eastern and northeastern India (-17 percent) and central India (-6 percent).
The deficit in central India is a statistical anomaly from the realistic assessment on the ground as it is highly affected by the advanced heavy rainfall that the cyclone brought to Gujarat. pepperjoy in June. The monsoon will remain largely muted over the rain-deficient region with the International Wind Institute forecasting light to moderate to somewhat scattered to widespread precipitation with isolated torrential fall in the next couple of days.
The short-term forecast valid through Sunday from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicated heavy to very heavy rain over the west coast, Gujarat and northwest India. It will be heaviest over Gujarat, northern Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and slightly less over southwestern Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
The arrival of a westerly disturbance that increases rainfall over northwest India is seen during this phase. The IMD sees light to moderate scattered somewhat to widespread precipitation with isolated heavy rainfall over the area over the next five days. Isolated heavy rains are likely over Uttarakhand and eastern Rajasthan over the next five days, according to an IMD report.
Heavy rain northeast
Towards the east and north-east of India, it is largely widespread to light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very intense falls that may persist over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim. Assam and Meghalaya; Arunachal Pradesh; Nagaland and Manipur over the next five days. Isolated heavy rains are also forecast for Odisha and Bihar during this period, and for Jharkhand on Friday.
said Vishwas Chitali, Senior Program Leader, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) Business line The Indian monsoon system is inherently known for its high spatial and temporal variability. This natural variation is further amplified by human-caused climate change. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation, which results in more moisture in the atmosphere. When weather systems interact with this moisture, it can lead to the formation of heavy rain clouds and heavy precipitation events.
According to CEEW analysis, about 45 percent of Indian regions are experiencing a shift from drought to flood and vice versa due to these changes. In addition, landscape disturbances, such as loss of vegetation and increased urbanization, exacerbate impacts and contribute to an increased incidence of flooding. This trend is particularly noticeable in Indian cities. For example, our analysis found that nearly 60 per cent of NCT landscaping in Delhi has undergone unsustainable changes in the past two decades,” Chitali said.