Half of met subdivisions in deficit category as monsoon enters July
With the monsoon entering its wettest month in July, the country faces a situation where half of the total number of meteorological subdivisions find themselves in the category of normal to above normal rainfall, while the other half are in deficit.
Regionally, neighboring eastern and central India, northern Peninsular India, and parts of southern Peninsular have deficits of -59 percent; Northwest India and adjacent central India fall into the normal to above normal category. Only Marathwada falls into the major deficit category (-60 per cent or above).
Heavy rain on the west coast
On Monday, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated that the western coast would continue to handle heavy to heavy rains differently over the next five days. Overall, it will be light to moderate to somewhat widespread with scattered heavy rain. Isolated heavy rains are likely over Kerala until Wednesday and over coastal Karnataka and inland southern Karnataka on Tuesday.
In western India, rain is likely to be light to moderate to fairly widespread with heavy to very heavy rain over Konkan and Goa as well as Ghat areas in Madhya Maharashtra over the next five days and onwards and Gujarat on Thursday and Friday.
Rains for western and northeastern India
Towards the east-northeast of India, it is likely to spread somewhat to light to moderate rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur during this phase. Very severe lows are likely in Meghalaya on Tuesday. Isolated heavy rains are also likely over Bihar and Jharkhand on Tuesday and over Odisha from Wednesday to Friday.
The monsoon basin lies across the plains of northwest India in the normal setting, but a rogue basin passes from the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim to north Chhattisgarh. Separately, the cyclonic circulation is located to the southwest and adjacent to the southeastern Bay of Bengal.
fluctuations abroad
The sea along the western coast fluctuates from being completely blasted (from Gujarat to Kerala) to lumpy (southern Maharashtra to Kerala on Monday). The cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh and south Gujarat complements the network of atmospheric features that preside over wet weather over the respective regions on Earth.
In northwest India, light to moderate widespread to widespread rain is likely with isolated torrential rains over Uttarakhand over the next five days and eastern Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday; and over Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday.