Trump policies on tariff, deregulation, immigration policy, tax cuts will impact global economy

As of November, our debt constitutes 96 per cent of our investment equity. Since we started in 2015, we have primarily been a motor insurer. More than 90 per cent constitutes of motor; in that, 70 per cent is motor third-party insurance.

Our liability is already upward biased. So, our portfolio, with respect to the debt, is mainly into the government securities or AAA-rated government institutions. From 2015, we get some funds beyond solvency margin – capitalising into the equity markets. So currently, my investment book into equity is around ₹775 crore. So, we are raising it up to ₹1,200-1,500 crore.

Valuations are a little bit stressed now. Though it has come down a bit, the growth story is quite good. I think the next two quarters will provide us an opportunity to build a complete portfolio of ₹1,200-1,500 crore in equities. We started with ₹100-crore allocation, and we have been slowly rising it. We have booked some profits and realigned our portfolio too.

This year, shorter-duration maturities were taken into the longer-duration, and the first half of this financial year, we have taken close to ₹20,500 crore into the longer duration securities, considering the interest rates getting softer.

In the next two-three quarters, we are going to scale it up because we are seeing an opportunity. We’re seeing Nifty moving from 23,500 to 25,000 kind of level in the next six months. Whenever it comes down, we will start scaling up.

Equity, basically, we are more into the large-cap stocks. When we completely allocate our equity, out of our total equity we would allocate about ₹150-200 crore into the small- and mid-cap segment; we have not started it yet.

We are adopting AI and see a lot of scope, lot of changes that are coming in into the insurance sector. While underwriting risks, we are using an operating ratio model, which is AI-based completely. On the basis of the data we collect such as the location, vehicle, make, model, etc, the discounts and commissions are given. So overall, we are maintaining our operating ratio at which the product is profitable.

From the debt perspective, it looks positive because the growth is slowing down. With respect to equity, the risk that we are seeing is that a new administration will come in the US; recently we heard about reciprocal taxes. With respect to what happened previously – where the immigration policy was changed and IT companies got hit, this time IT companies are quite ready with respect to the same.

What will happen to the tariffs is yet to be seen, because we already have trade deficit. If you see in terms of liquidity on all these three fronts, we are getting some liquidity problems — dollar is rising, capital outflows and deficit is also rising. How it pans out going forward with the Trump administration is important; there will be four policies from the US that we are watching out for, that will have an impact on the global economic front — tariff, deregulation, immigration policy and tax cuts in the US.

It is looking more challenging because everybody wants to work in a limited space. When insurance companies start giving their services to rural India, then things will start improving. Right now, the management cost is quite high – around 30 per cent of the overall premium that we collect. I think with these kind of platforms, management cost will come down, and the service standards will improve, and also new products are being launched. A lot of innovation is coming on.

Listing plans are there. I think two, three years down the line.

The GST should come down with respect to health insurance, because health insurance is not a cost GST. It won’t come under Budget. The rest is fine. The only thing, no surprises should come.

I feel Insurance Amendment Bill will be passed in the Budget session, and the new Motor Vehicle Amendment Bill is also pending.