APEC Climate Centre predicts La Nina will emerge during Jan-March 2025

The APEC Climate Centre has predicted that La Nina, which brings heavy rainfall and floods to Asia, particularly India, will probably emerge during January-March 2025.  

“The APCC ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert suggests ‘La Niña Watch’. Niño3.4 index (sea surface temperature anomaly index) is expected to be -0.9℃ for January 2025 and gradually increase to -0.1℃ for June 2025,” it said in its seasonal forecast for January-June 2025.

It said there was a 60 per cent chance for La Nina conditions during January-March 2025 with a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions expected to be more probable for the remaining forecast periods.

Akin to WMO forecast

APCC forecast is similar to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) prediction that there is a 59 per cent chance of La Nina setting in during December 2024-February 2025. However, the weather event would be short and weak, WMO said last week, adding that conditions would transition to neutral by March-May 2025. 

On the other hand, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said last week said that ENSO, which is currently in the neutral range, is not meeting typical La Nina thresholds. Some oceanic indices besides cloud and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean have, at times, shown weak La Nina characteristics in recent months, it said. 

The Nino3.4 index has to be  -0.4℃ f or less for six months or more before La Nina can be declared. In the case of El Nino, it has to be  +0.5℃ or higher for six months. 

APCC said there was a “strongly enhanced probability for above-normal temperatures” for most of the globe except the central and eastern tropical Pacific during January-June 2025.

Above-normal rainfall for India

For India, it said there was an enhanced probability of above-normal rainfall in India, the Bay of Bengal, the Indochinese Peninsula, central and northeastern China, Russia (excluding western region), Alaska, and northern South America. In particular, it projected above-normal rainfall in the Bay of Bengal.

At the same time, it predicted below-normal rainfall in some regions of the Middle East, southern Central Asia and the region spanning the eastern subtropical North Pacific to the western subtropical North Atlantic.

It forecast a “strongly enhanced probability” for above-normal temperatures in the Indian Ocean (excluding the southern region), the Arctic, Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region),  South-East Asia (excluding the Indochinese Peninsula), central Africa, the North Atlantic, southern US, Mexico, Central America, and central South America.