Below-average winter rain could spell trouble for India’s rabi crops
India’s rabi crops could face rough weather during the current winter season (December and February 2025), going by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
In its Agricultural Commodities 2024 report for the December quarter, ABARES — a unit of Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry — said, “The global climate outlook for December 2024 to February 2025 indicates that mixed rainfall conditions are expected for the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions”.
ABARES said rainfall in most of India, Brazil, West Asia, eastern China, much of the southern US and Mexico is expected to be below average.
IMD forecast
The projection is in line with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of above-normal minimum temperatures during December 2024-February 2025 over most parts of the country. It said cold waves during winter will be below normal.
The national weather agency has predicted rainfall in December will be above normal in the southern region, west-central India, and some parts of east-central and north-east India. Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of north and north-west India — key regions for rabi crops — and many areas of east and north-east India, it said.
Last week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said there are chances of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) setting in, though it may return to neutral by the end of this month.
“The IOD index has been below the negative IOD threshold (−0.40 °C) since mid-October. If the IOD index remains below the threshold for another week, it would indicate a negative IOD event is underway,” it said.
Update next week
BoM is expected to provide an update next week. However, there are indications that India is probably going through a negative IOD phase.
IOD is the fluctuation of sea temperature between the western and eastern parts. A positive IOD can result in increased rainfall in parts of India. However, negative IOD will result in lower rainfall in the western parts of India, while the Bay of Bengal will likely witness above-normal cyclonic activity.
IMD data from 720 districts show that 63 per cent of the country received deficient or no rainfall during the post-monsoon period between October 1 and December 4.
ABARES predicted a high probability of above-average rainfall in South-East Asia and Australasia.
In India, some of the regions are now going through a dry spell. As a result, crops such as pigeon pea (arhar or tur) and potatoes have been affected.
According to traders, the dry period in October-November in the central plans has resulted in farmers reporting losses in their potato crop. The losses are pegged as high as 30 per cent.
Higher rabi crops sowing
Reports from Karnataka say the pigeon pea crop has suffered damage due to the dry spell. Traders said the production of wheat, the main rabi foodgrain crop, could be affected if the current dry spell continues.
On the other hand, the current spell of rain under the influence of Cyclone Fengal is reported to have affected over two lakh hectare of farmlands, mainly paddy, in Tamil Nadu.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the coverage of rabi crops as of November 29 was 428.84 lh, up 17 per cent. Barring oilseeds, the acreage of other crops, particularly wheat and pulses, is high.
The ABARES report, however, said the global crop production in 2024-25 is projected to remain above 2023-24 levels despite extreme weather events across both the northern and southern hemisphere.