India’s night temperature rise in October breaks all time record, November may be ‘above normal’
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that the average minimum temperature during October was 21.85 Degree Celsius, which is 1.85 Degree higher than normal and is also the highest since 1901. Region-wise too, the minimum temperature (recorded in the night) was the highest in the south, central and north-west meteorological subdivisions.
Briefing the media, Mrityunjay Mohapatra, IMD’s Director-General, said the rise in minimum temperature in the South has been continuous in the last few years, unlike in other regions. IMD data for October show that in 2024, the minimum temperature reached record 23.45 degree, whereas the second highest was 23.11 degree in 2021, 23.05 degree in 2017, 23.03 degree in 2019 and 23.02 degree in 2020 in the southern region.
He also said that October was the warmest pan-India basis since 1901, with the mean temperature recording 1.23 degree Celsius above normal. He said there was absence of western disturbances and influx of easterly winds due to active low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal as both contributed to the rise in temperature. The mean temperature in October was 26.92 degrees against 25.69 degrees which is considered normal.
He said the temperature will continue to remain 2-5 degree Celsius above normal in the north-western plains at least for the next two weeks, before a gradual decline towards normalcy.
Above normal rains from N-E monsoon
On the outlook for November, the IMD DG said that the north-east monsoon is expected to bring above normal rainfall in the southern peninsula comprising Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe and south interior Karnataka.
“The above normal to normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except north-west and some areas of central India,” IMD said. However, Mohapatra said that while all other parts will have above normal minimum temperature, the north-west region may have ‘below normal’ temperature.
As wheat sowing has started, the prediction of “normal to below normal” maximum temperature over west central India and adjoining areas of north-west and north peninsular India, may help farmers to speed up the planting acrtivities, experts said.
La Nina in Dec
Mohapatra said that all the global weather forecasting models, including IMD, had gone wrong in predicting the emergence of La Nina and the scientists have to do a study on the reason for this deviation. He said there is a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing by December in a gradual manner.
“ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) conditions are slowly evolving towards the negative side and La Nina can set in by December,” Mohapatra said.