90% chance of El Nino developing over next few months, says US climate agency

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Chances of the warm water phenomenon El NinoThe US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which leads to droughts in Asia and floods in the Americas, said growth over the next two months increased to more than 90 percent.

“A transition from (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) ENSO neutral is expected in the next two months, with a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter,” CPC said in its El Nino watch update today.

Its predictions follow an announcement by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) that, as of July, six of the seven models indicate that El Niño thresholds for sea surface temperatures will be met or exceeded. She said all models point to the development of the event by August.

“The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All five models indicate that a positive IOD event may develop by June,” BOM said.

At least a weak El Nino is likely

The CPC said an El Niño of potential significance looms with at least a low probability. “…the range of probabilities at the end of the year (November and January) includes at least an 80 percent chance of a moderate El Niño to a 55 percent chance of a strong El Niño,” it said.

However, the EPC warned that “it is still possible that the tropical atmosphere did not couple with the ocean, and that El Niño did not materialize (5-10 percent chance).”

The Pacific Ocean is currently El Niño neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño), with abnormally warm in both the east and west of the basin, BOM said.

She said oceanic ENSO indices continued to warm and are expected to reach El Niño thresholds during the winter, and there was little shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indices.

BOM keeps “watch”

In light of this, the Australian Meteorological Agency has kept an “El Niño watch”, which means there is a 50 percent chance of the event developing in 2023.

Last week, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said After experiencing three consecutive years of La Niña that brought bumper crops to some and crop failures to others, “it’s likely we’re heading straight for El Niño.” However, he said he is uncertain about the impact of El Nino as “no two events are the same”.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), a body supported by the World Meteorological Organization of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said the southwest monsoon, key to agriculture in the Indian subcontinent, could see normal to lower-than-normal rainfall across the country. most parts of the south. Asia.

The World Meteorological Organization said the chances of an El Niño this year are increasing.